This is in response to the June 27 article “Study: Dairy in peril from climate shift.” Unfortunately, I believe this is very misleading. It’s based on predictions from general computer models, or GCMs, that try to project future climate.
In my opinion, GCMs are not equivalent to empirical science. This is more guesswork than fact. It is, however, a step up from a wet finger in the wind used to predict air speed, direction and temperature.
How dependable are GCMs? This is where it gets interesting. We are taken out of the science lab and taken to a math lab. Computer models that make these predictions use calculations, not observed data.
A paper from the University of Missouri titled “Global Climate Models and Their Limitations” reveals that the International Panel on Climate Change’s “stated confidence in the models ... is likely exaggerated. The many and varied model deficiencies … indicate much work remains to be done before model simulations can be treated with the level of confidence ascribed to them by the IPCC.”
Even the climate change oracle, astronomer James Hansen, admits there’s been “fudging.” And Stephen Schneider of the International Panel on Climate Change said in 1989, “We have to offer up scary scenarios, make simplified dramatic statements, and make little mention of any doubts we may have. ... Each of us has to decide what the right balance is between being effective and being honest.”