Democrats’ decision to replace President Joe Biden with Vice President Kamala Harris as the party’s presidential nominee is paying off so far in Pennsylvania, according to the latest Franklin & Marshall College Poll.

Though her 46% to 43% lead over former President Donald Trump among registered voters was narrow – falling within the poll’s 3.8% margin of error – the results show Harris has more than reversed the six-point advantage Trump had over Biden in June’s poll.

Democrats have likened the energy behind Harris’ campaign to what former President Barack Obama commanded in 2008 when he won Pennsylvania by more than 10 percentage points.

But Republicans insist Harris is simply enjoying a honeymoon period that will pass as voters learn more about her positions on hot-button issues like immigration and developing domestic energy resources.

Berwood Yost, director of the Center for Opinion Research and the Floyd Institute for Public Policy at F&M, said the Democrats’ voter base “has sort of come home” in backing Harris, but he said she’ll need to break away from the unpopular Biden administration if she hopes to maintain the positivity surrounding her candidacy.

“Harris is in good standings because she has kind of brought Democrats back to the ticket,” Yost said. “But it’s not that Trump has sagged, you can make an argument that he’s doing a little bit better.”

Trump’s standing has remained steady – in the low-to-mid forty percent range – in recent F&M polls. His favorability among those surveyed has increased by five points since April, reaching 44%. Fifty-six percent said they view him unfavorably.

The latest F&M Poll, conducted in late July and early August, marks the first since Harris replaced Biden at the top of the ticket last month. Forty-six percent said they viewed Harris favorably while 52% said they had unfavorable views; 2% said they did not know.

Harris’ entry into the race, Yost said, has likely sapped support from third-party candidates and voters who were disillusioned with both Biden and Trump as the leading candidates.

The poll showed independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has lost a third of his support in the state, dropping from 9% in the April F&M Poll to 6% in the latest survey. Meanwhile, Green Party candidate Jill Stein and the Libertarian Party’s Chase Oliver each polled at just 1%. Only 3% of voters said they did not know who they’d vote for.

Still, the poll also found that 12% of the 873 voters asked said they were “still making up” their minds on which presidential candidate to back. Eighty-seven percent said they were “certain” and 1% said they did not know.

Yost said only voters who said they had a plan of who to vote for were asked whether they were certain in their choice and participants could choose to opt-out of the question.

“I think for this race, it just indicates that most people have made up their mind and aren’t going to change,” Yost said.

Four years ago, F&M’s August poll found that 6% of voters who said they’d vote for Trump and 3% who supported Biden said they weren’t certain and still making their decision. In 2016, 12% of Trump’s supporters and 12% of then-Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton’s supporters said they weren’t certain.

A potential ‘drag’ on Harris

Concerns about the economy are often the issue at the top of surveyed voters' minds, so it may be unsurprising that F&M’s August survey found economic policies were the most important issue guiding voters’ decisions on the presidential race.

More than half (51%) of polled voters said Trump was better suited to “handle the economy,” while just 39% chose Harris.

But 45% of voters said they found Harris more honest and trustworthy than Trump (32%). And 46% said she had the “character and good judgment needed to be president,” compared to Trump’s 38%.

Yost said voters’ pessimism about the economy could be Harris’ potential downfall.

Almost half (47%) of respondents said their families are “worse off” than they were one year ago. Thirty-six percent said they are about the same, while just 16% said they are better off. One percent said they did not know.

One-fifth said that “looking ahead” they think they will be worse off than last year and 24% said they didn’t know what to expect. About 36% and 21% said they expect to either be in the same financial situation or better off, respectively.

Yost said in the 2008 election, then-President George W. Bush’s unpopular handling of the country’s economy that year “was a drag” on then-GOP nominee John McCain. To avoid that sort of drag this year, Yost said Harris needs to “separate herself from Biden and have a positive economic message” if she hopes to avoid a similar situation.

READ: Walz to be ‘key messenger’ for Harris in Lancaster and rural counties

An early Senate race

For the closely watched U.S. Senate race, the latest findings track with surveys conducted earlier this year, showing three-term incumbent Democrat Bob Casey with a 48% to 36% lead over Republican nominee Dave McCormick, a former hedge fund CEO.

McCormick has struggled to gain ground on Casey, with 32% saying they don’t know enough about him. Just 31% say they have at least a “somewhat favorable” view of McCormick, while 37% say they view him at least “somewhat” unfavorably.

Casey, meanwhile, holds at least a “somewhat favorable” view among 43% of polled voters. Thirty-six percent said they viewed him unfavorably, while 20% said they did not know.

“It’s way too early to say (McCormick is) done,” Yost said. “But nothing has happened…to change the trajectory of that race on his behalf.”

Both candidates have spent millions on advertising across the state and have had outside groups pledge even more spending as Election Day nears.

Casey’s campaign has largely targeted his opponent over allegations that Bridgewater Associates, while McCormick was its CEO, invested a China-based company that makes fentanyl, the narcotic often mixed with heroin and sold illegally in the United States and elsewhere.

McCormick’s campaign recently launched their own attack on Casey, accusing the incumbent of holding a small amount of stock in the same company.

Casey’s ads attacking McCormick, Yost said, seem to be sticking in the minds of voters.

“I think he’s actually gained a little since our last poll because he’s caused some Republicans, perhaps some independents, to think twice about McCormick,” he said.

Winning the Casey-McCormick race is key for either party to control the Senate. Republicans need to flip just one seat to control the chamber, depending on the presidential race’s results.

New state actions

Limiting cellphones

The F&M survey asked participants what they thought about Pennsylvania’s recently adopted program to help public schools buy lockable bags that students’ wireless phones would be kept in throughout the school day.

Just 12% said students “should have access to their cell phones during school hours,” while an overwhelming 84% said they support restricting access at school. Four percent said they did not know.

The idea to provide state funding to help schools buy lockable bags was pitched earlier this year by state Sen. Ryan Aument, of West Hempfield. His proposal was included in Pennsylvania’s state budget package earlier this summer.

Sunday hunting

Hunting on Sundays for most types of wildlife is currently illegal in Pennsylvania, with the exception of three dates in November. Both the state House and Senate this year passed independent bills to allow for it, but one of those bills must be taken up by the other chamber before Gov. Josh Shapiro has the opportunity to sign it into law.

Just under half (49%) said they at least “somewhat’ favor allowing hunting on Sundays, while one-third said they at least somewhat opposed it. Sixteen percent said they did not know.

Open primaries

More than half (54%) of surveyed voters said they “strongly” favor Pennsylvania changing its nomination process to that of an open primary, allowing for independent voters to participate in either party’s primary process.

Another 23% said they at least “somewhat” favor it. One-fifth said they at least somewhat oppose an open primary, while 4% said they didn’t know.

If Pennsylvania adopted an open primary system, the poll found 31% of surveyed voters said they would be at least “somewhat likely” to change their registration to independent. However, 58% said they’d be unlikely to do so.

Nine percent were already registered independents and 2% said they didn’t know,

Defining marriage

Democrats in the House passed a bill earlier this summer that would change Pennsylvania’s definition of marriage to a “civil contract between two individuals,” effectively codifying same-sex marriage into state law. The Republican-led Senate has yet to consider the proposal.

The poll found that about 59% of those surveyed favored the language change, while 35% opposed it. Five percent said they did not know.

Yost said defining marriage was one of the most divisive state issues the pollsters asked about. “That’s perhaps not surprising, but is important.”

Of those surveyed, 89% of Democrats, 59% of Independents and 31% of Republicans favored the definition change.

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