President Barack Obama holds a 9 percentage point lead over Republican Mitt Romney among likely voters in Pennsylvania, a new Franklin & Marshall College poll shows.

The survey reflects the former Massachusetts governor's ongoing difficulty connecting with middle-class voters here with fewer than six weeks until the Nov. 6 election, poll director G. Terry Madonna said.

"It's going to be a huge climb for Romney to win this state," said Madonna, who heads F&M's Center for Politics and Public Affairs.

"It's going to take probably something extraordinary such as a major shock to the economy or some kind of foreign affairs crisis that hurts the president," he said. "I don't know that there is anything he (Romney) can do, per se."

The F&M poll also found Democratic U.S. Sen. Bob Casey maintaining a substantial lead over Republican challenger Tom Smith, and a clear majority of voters in support of the state's tough new voter identification law.

The survey, released this morning, is among a handful of recent polls that show Obama leading by at least half a dozen percentage points in the race for this state's 20 electoral votes.

Two other surveys, both conducted last week by a firm that does public opinion polling for the state Republican Party, found the race to be a dead heat.

The F&M poll found Obama leading in his quest for a second term among likely voters, with 52 percent of the vote to Romney's 43 percent. Three percent were undecided.

The margin of error in the survey of 392 likely voters is plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

Among all registered voters surveyed from from Sept. 18 through Sunday, Obama led by 11 points, 50 percent to 39 percent, with 6 percent undecided. An August F&M poll of registered voters had Obama leading by 6 points.

The margin of error in the new poll of all 632 registered voters is plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.

The poll found Pennsylvania voters believe Obama better understands their concerns and is more prepared than Romney to handle the poor economy and other aspects of the presidency.

"If Obama wins the presidency, it's in spite of a bad economy and because of  a good campaign," Madonna said. "If Romney wins, it's because of the economy and despite a bad campaign."

The Republican's campaign has not successfully pushed back at Obama's portrayal of Romney as an out-of-touch, wealthy businessman who would be an enemy of the middle class, Madonna said.

"I don't think he's successfully defined himself," Madonna said of Romney. "He's not explained to people what he'll do if elected president other than to say, I'll cut the budget in general terms.

"Nobody knows what he would do, specifically, on Medicare. He says he'd repeal the Affordable Care Act on Day One, but yet he likes part of it," Madonna said. "There are a lot of conflicting messages."

In the race for U.S. Senate in Pennsylvania, Casey leads Smith 48 percent to 38 percent, with 8 percent undecided. Smith, a former coal miner turned successful businessman now worth tens of millions of dollars, is unrecognized by about half of the state's voters.

When it comes to voter ID, 59 percent favor the law and 39 percent oppose it.  

Of those who favor the law, 75 percent said they still would support the law even if many eligible voters will be prevented from voting because they do not have a proper ID. Twenty-one percent said they would change their minds about the law if it was clear voters would be turned away.

Of those who oppose the voter ID law, 68 percent said they would still oppose it even if voter fraud might occur without it in place. Twenty-three percent said they would change their minds and support the law if there was evidence of voter fraud.  

In all, 99 percent of voters surveyed said they have a state-approved photo ID.

tmurse@lnpnews.com

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