Franklin & Marshall College Poll
Rick Santorum is in jeopardy of being rejected yet a second time by Pennsylvania voters.
The Republican presidential hopeful and former U.S. senator's double-digit lead over Mitt Romney in Pennsylvania has all but evaporated with less than a month until the primary, a new Franklin & Marshall College poll shows.
The race for the state's 72 delegates to the GOP's nominating convention in August now is neck and neck in what is likely to be bad news for Santorum, who had been expected to do much better on his home turf.
"At the moment Santorum would win narrowly," said poll director G. Terry Madonna, who heads F&M's Center for Politics and Public Affairs. "I think he needs to come out of Pennsylvania a big winner."
Pennsylvania's primary is April 24.
A poor showing by Santorum in a state he represented in the House and Senate for 16 years would signal his continued inability to win over voters in more complex, diverse states outside the South. Santorum finished second to Romney in the big states of Michigan, Ohio and Illinois.
"He cannot narrowly win or narrowly lose in Pennsylvania," Madonna said. "His campaign understands that. It would be devastating to his campaign."
Santorum leads Romney in this state by a mere 2 points — 30 percent to 28 percent — down from a whopping 29 points in February, the F&M Poll of 505 registered Republicans found. His lead is within the margin of error.
U.S. Rep. Ron Paul of Texas gets 9 percent and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich gets 6 percent. Twenty-four percent are undecided and 3 percent are supporting someone else.
The poll was conducted from March 20 through Sunday. The margin of error is 4.2 percent.
The poll shows Romney, a former Massachusetts governor who holds a wide lead in delegates and remains the front-runner for the party's presidential nomination, gaining momentum in Pennsylvania.
Santorum's lead has shrunk in every statewide poll done over the past month, from 29 points in the previous F&M Poll to 18 points and then 14 points in polls conducted by Quinnipiac University and PPP.
Madonna said Santorum's now-2-point margin reflects growing concerns about the candidate's renewed focus on cultural issues such as abortion and contraception, as well as worries about his ability to defeat President Barack Obama in the fall.
"He's raised issues that he thinks are important but that a lot of voters either don't pay attention to or are controversial," Madonna said. "That raises concerns among moderate voters."
The poll found that moderate voters side with Romney by a 21-point margin in the state, 38 percent to 17 percent. Romney's strongest pockets of support are in Philadelphia and its suburbs and the northeast part of the state.
In a sign of just how concerned they are about a Santorum presidency, nearly one in five Romney supporters said they might vote against their party's nominee if it's not Romney. Only 6 percent of Santorum's backers shared that sentiment.
Santorum, meanwhile, holds a 12-point lead among conservative voters in the state. His strongest support is in central Pennsylvania, which includes Lancaster County, and the western part of the state. He is favored by evangelicals.
Santorum voters said they support him primarily because he has a "strong moral character," according to the poll.
Troy J. Gockley, a 65-year-old retiree from Elizabethtown, said he will vote for Santorum.
"He's got a good moral background," said Gockley, a poll respondent who agreed to speak with the Intelligencer Journal/Lancaster New Era.
Charles E. Strohm, 75, a retiree from Lititz, said he supports Santorum but would consider backing Romney if his first choice quits his campaign.
"He's a Pennsylvanian," Strohm said of Santorum. "He's not Massachusetts. He didn't do some of that other stuff like pass a health bill like Romney did."
Garth Jernigan, 50, of Mount Joy, also is a Santorum supporter because, he said, Santorum stands up for what is right.
"If you are going to do the job of governor or senator, it's better to be respected than loved. That's what a true leader is doing, " Jernigan said.
He said he distrusts Romney because of his signature on the Massachusetts health care reform law, which became a template for Obama's legislation. He said he also distrusts Romney because of his Mormonism.
While Santorum has reaffirmed his base here, he's been losing the moderates in other parts of the state and across the country.
"In the last month he has moved sharply to social and cultural issues in a highly proactive way," Madonna said. "There is no doubt that costs him support nationally, where Romney has a 10-point lead, and it's cost him in our state, where his unfavorables have risen."
Fifty-four percent of Republican voters view Santorum favorably, down from 63 percent in February. Romney's favorable ratings have increased to 46 percent from 40 percent.
Santorum served two terms in the U.S. House and two more in U.S. Senate before losing to Democrat Bob Casey Jr. in 2006. Casey, the son of a popular former governor, beat Santorum by 708,206 votes or 17.4 percentage points, the most lopsided loss ever for a sitting Republican U.S. senator.
READ: Summary of findings of Franklin & Marshall College poll (PDF)
