The Oscars are coming on Feb. 26, and it's time to make some predictions.

Alas, I am not so good at predicting who wins Oscars. I confuse who will win with who should win. I keep thinking the Oscars are all about artistic quality, but they are about a bunch of other things, too, like popularity, politics and those "for your consideration" ad campaigns.

So, this time out, I will look at who should win and who will win.

Best Picture: There are nine nominees this year. Some, such as "Moneyball" and "Midnight in Paris," don't really belong there. They are fine, enjoyable movies, but nowhere near being great.

Three great movies are on the list: "Hugo," "The Artist" and "The Descendants."

"The Descendants" doesn't have a chance, even though it was a wonderful film. But it's too small and thoughtful for the Oscars.

That leaves "Hugo," which got more nominations than any other film, and "The Artist," which has dazzled Hollywood for being silent and so darn clever.

This is a tough one. Both are about the early days of Hollywood. One uses the latest technology of 3D to great effect while the other uses an extinct movie format to great effect as well.

I think "Hugo" should win. For me, it really was the best picture of the year. But "The Artist" was such a delight, it just jumped off the screen.

After lots of backs and forths, I'm going with "Hugo." Why? Because I closed my eyes, pointed my finger and it ended up on "Hugo."

Best Actress: The Oscars love portrayals of real people, so Meryl Streep, who plays Margaret Thatcher in "The Iron Lady," and Michelle Williams, who's Marilyn Monroe in "My Week With Marilyn," look like favorites. They were both spot on in their portrayals.

The problem is, "Iron Lady" failed as a film, and the Marilyn movie was just too slight. Neither did much of anything at the box office.

If the movie had been better, I think Streep would have won, and it's a shame because you can see how good "Iron Lady" could have been.

I'm going to predict Viola Davis, who gave a strong performance in "The Help" will win. And I think she should. The more I think about her unflashy, subtle performance, the more I like it.

Best Actor: It's down to George Clooney for his warm, pitch-perfect performance as a struggling father in "The Descendants," and the star-making turn by Jean Dujardin as a silent screen star whose career falls apart in "The Artist."

I'd vote for Dujardin, but Clooney will win. It's his year to take the big one home.

Best Supporting Actress: Looks like Octavia Spencer has this one locked up for her funny but poignant role in "The Help." She should and will win.

Best Supporting Actor: If Christopher Plummer doesn't win for "Beginners," I'm going to be mad. Not only would it be a lifetime nod, it rewards a fantastic performance. He'll win.

Best Director: If "Hugo" wins best picture, Martin Scorsese is a shoo-in for this award. I think Hollywood loves the idea of this tough guy director having a huge triumph with a kid movie.

But someday I'd love to see Alexander Payne ("The Descendants") get an Oscar. He's the best director working today.

My other predications? That Billy Crystal will be funnier than James Franco was last year, that a number of actors will not wash their hair, that the music will start playing too soon for some winners and not soon enough for others and that Woody Allen will not show up but "The Artist's" Uggie will.

And a week after the Oscars, I will forget who won what.

jholahan@lnpnews.com