Groundhog Day is a fitting day to discuss the Republican primary — not just because there are six more months until the Republican convention, but because with four states down and 46 to go, former Massachusetts' Gov. Mitt Romney holds a commanding lead in two critical areas — delegates and Super PAC cash.
Tuesday, Romney defeated former House speaker Newt Gingrich by 14 percentage points in Florida.
The victory was not unexpected; it had been foretold by recent polls. But Florida also is the largest and most diverse state to hold a primary. And it is a key swing state in presidential elections.
To have lost as badly as he did in Florida has to leave Gingrich feeling like the hole he is in is getting deeper.
That's not to say that he is out of the race. Gingrich has been buried twice before heading into the primary season, and he still managed to win the South Carolina primary.
But the numbers coming out of Florida do not look good. Gingrich polled particularly poorly among women, who overwhelmingly favored Romney. And Romney even managed to garner a significant portion of the conservative base.
Even though Gingrich says he is in the race for "eight months ... unless Romney drops out earlier," February doesn't offer him much hope. Nevada has a sizable Mormon population and Romney, a Mormon, grew up in Michigan, which holds its primary Feb. 28.
But Gingrich's biggest obstacle isn't the primary election calendar but the pile of cash Romney's Super PAC, Restore Our Future, has raised. In reports filed Wednesday, the organization had a laundry list of contributors who have pledged $30.2 million to Romney. Gingrich's Super PAC, Winning Our Future, had only $2 million in the bank when the primary season began. He since has added $10 million from Nevada casino owner Sheldon Adelson.
The Super PACs are a direct result of the Citizens United decision by the U.S. Supreme Court. While candidates can raise a maximum of $2,500 per person for each election, Super PACs, because they are "independent" from candidates, can raise unlimited contributions from individuals, corporations or unions.
Much of that money has been spent on negative ads. In Florida, 71 percent of the ads that were aired were negative. It was those ads that enabled Romney to halt Gingrich's surge in Iowa. The same thing occurred in Florida.
Gingrich claims the conservative mantle in this race. But the race now is less about ideology and more about whose bank account is bigger.
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