I am a movie lover and I make the mistake of thinking that the Academy will actually vote for what they think is the best, not to atone for a lost award earlier in an actor's career, or because a movie was a huge hit, or because they don't like someone personally.

But that's what happens. Politics is often more important than quality when it comes to Oscar winners. My naive sensibilities don't make me a good fortune teller. But that won't stop me from predicting this year's winners. (Just don't use this column for the basis of your office pool or the New Era contest -- please!) Here are my predictions, lame as they may be: Best Picture: Actually, I'm as sure of this one as I have ever been. "Lord of the Rings: Return of the King'' will win. Wait, let me rephrase that: The "Lord of the Rings'' trilogy will win because that's what this award is really honoring. The academy can't and won't miss the chance to honor the amazing accomplishment of bringing the Tolkein trilogy to the big screen and doing it so well.

Best Director: See above. Peter Jackson, director and main visionary of the "Lord of the Rings'' trilogy, is making space on his mantle now.

Best Actress: Charlize Theron looks like a shoo-in for her raw and powerful work in "Monster.'' The Academy loves when beautiful people make themselves look ugly -- both physically and emotionally -- and Theron sure does here. It's an overused word, but this performance is truly courageous.

Best Actor: Bill Murray gave a deeply subtle performance in "Lost in Translation'' and Sean Penn gave a wild, grief-soaked tour de force in "Mystic River.'' Who do you think is going to win? Penn will take home the Oscar, but I think he really should have won for his brilliant performance in "Dead Man Walking'' a few years back.

This is a good time to protest the unfairness of comedy and drama competing in the same acting categories. Johnny Depp gave a dazzling, funny performance in "Pirates of the Caribbean'' but he doesn't have a chance against the hefty seriousness of the others.

Best Supporting Actress: This is the one category that always seems to be a surprise. I'm going to go out on a limb and say Marcia Gay Harden wins because her work was so bone chilling in "Mystic River.'' Since I'm going with quality here, I'll probably be wrong. My second choice would be Renee Zellweger, who helped warm up "Cold Mountain'' and lost a best actress award last year for "Chicago.'' Best Supporting Actor: Speaking of bone chilling, I think the haunting performance of Tim Robbins in "Mystic River'' will win. Since "Mystic River'' won't be taking Best Picture and Clint Eastwood won't be taking Best Director this year, the movie will win plenty of acting awards.

Here are a few other predictions: The best actor's acceptance speech will be better than the best actress's if the past few years are any indication. Why have all the actresses given such loopy speeches while the men seem to go for more inspiring messages.

Someone will say something political, even if Michael Moore isn't invited to be a presenter. That will liven things up.

Host Billy Crystal will come out and do an imitation of Gollum//Smeagol, the deranged Hobbit from "Lord of the Rings.'' Expect to hear the word "precious'' a lot.

Some heart-felt acceptance speech will be interrupted by tacky music, making everyone feel crummy.

And now I'm going way out on a limb: The show will go on way too long.


(Jane Holahan is a New Era Staff Writer. Her column appears every Wednesday.) blog comments powered by Disqus