It was at a gathering of university biologists from Pennsylvania in late 2008 that Millersville University's Dr. John R. Wallace first learned that the state would be ground zero for the Marcellus Shale natural gas boom.

The aquatic ecologist remembers how stunned he and his colleagues were that a Pennsylvania Fish and Boat Commission official could not answer questions about the possible impact of water withdrawals and locating thousands of gas wells near the state's mountainous streams in the coming decades.

Most alarming to Wallace was the fact that the specifics of what makes a stream pristine and capable of supporting native brook trout had not been measured on most of the waterways in Marcellus Shale country.

What was needed — and quick — Wallace realized, were "snapshots" of the measurable characteristics of such streams, kind of "before" pictures.

That way, if drilling did pollute a stream, there would be proof.

"I came back and said we just can't sit back and do nothing," Wallace recalls.

Since then, he has lobbied to get geologists, biologists, chemists and others mobilized to document the conditions of streams before drilling comes to town.

Wallace, a biology professor at MU and a fly fisherman, does not mince words about the threat he perceives to water quality posed by underregulated natural gas drilling — and the danger of just standing by.

"You mark my words, this will be Pennsylvania's environmental Armageddon if we do not do something now," he says.

Wallace wishes the effort had started years ago — there are already approximately 3,900 wells on the ground with some predicting as many as 60,000 wells by 2030.

But scientists and citizen groups are rallying to the effort. Groups such as the "Waterdogs" of the Pine Creek Headwaters Protection Group and the Alliance for Aquatic Resource Monitoring, a Dickinson College-based group that used to measure acid rain. Trout Unlimited is training citizen scientists to monitor streams as part of its Coldwater Conservation Corps.

Throughout the Marcellus Shale range, stream monitors are being deployed. Teams are tromping through the backcountry, measuring vital statistics such as water temperature, dissolved oxygen, pH, total dissolved solids, conductivity (a measure of salinity and metals), chemistry, as well as presence of tiny aquatic insects and wild trout.

With funds from a MU faculty grant Wallace scratched to find, the professor and his students last April began assessing seven headwater streams in Tioga County that drain into the landmark Pine Creek.

Two are in agriculture areas and the remainder are in or near Sproul State Forest. Six of the seven are either classified as Exceptional Value or High Quality streams.

One has a gas pad beside it, one has gas wells about a half-mile away. The remainder are slated to see drilling in the future.

It is imperative, Wallace says, that all those rushing to attain baseline data use the same scientific protocols and get the information peer-reviewed.

"The industry wants science — it's coming. It's on our radar and it's going to come in a fair and ethical approach that's consistent. That's my hope," says Wallace.

"If we're not all on the same page, then that just provides another loophole for the industry to drive a wedge into in court."

The Pennsylvania Fish and Boat Commission has stepped up stream testing. So has the Susquehanna River Basin Commission, the agency that approves water withdrawals in the watershed

The SRBC, which has a dual mission of promoting economic development and protecting natural resources, similarly has expanded its testing programs.

For example, the SRBC has installed 50 real-time monitors on 50 streams, most of them where gas drilling is active or proposed.

The public can view the unfiltered readings by going to the SRBC website at www.srbc.net. Click on "Remote Water Quality Monitoring Network."

Thirty of the stations are funded by a gas company.

 SRBC spokeswoman Susan Obleski says the monitors have not been operating long enough to make assumptions about changes in water quality on any of the streams. But she said "there have been some anomalies where we want to do more evaluation."

She knows there is interest among the public "because we get questions all the time. People will call if there are spikes in readings.

"Rightly, there have been concerns that drilling could be the cause of water-quality problems, but without the monitoring nobody can say yes there is or no there isn't," she says.

Conversely, the information may give the gas industry proof that they can drill around sensitive streams safely and allay the public's concerns, Obleski says.

SRBC also does detailed chemical and biological assessments of streams if there is no existing data when a gas company applies for a water withdrawal.

So far, the SRBC has approved water withdrawals for gas drilling at 151 locations, mostly headwater streams.

The concerns of Wallace and his colleagues are many.

One is sedimentation flowing into streams from the clearing of forests for well pads, pipelines, access roads, water storage ponds and equipment storage areas.  

Another is fragmentation of forests, which reduces the natural material flowing into streams that aquatic insects depend on. Fragmentation also changes the plant community that has evolved and invites invasive species.

Dr. Matthew McTammany, a Bucknell University professor who helps monitor the Susquehanna River for water quality related to natural gas extraction, worries that even though the water-busting fracturing process to dislodge natural gas takes place well below natural aquifers, there could be "upwelling" that would allow toxic frac water to migrate upwards.

Wallace also worries about air pollution from natural gas drilling, and the lack of emergency planning in case of a water or air pollution accident.

In that regard, a colleague at MU, Dr. Sepi Yalda, director of the Center for Disaster Research and Education, is looking into potential impacts of large-scale drilling in Pennsylvania and preparedness efforts.

Can't natural gas be removed safely in Pennsylvania with proper controls?

Says McTammany, "I hope the natural gas industry in Pennsylvania can operate without destroying the social and ecological communities of our state. Water quality will be affected, without a doubt. But will water quality be reduced enough to impact aquatic ecosystems?

"Will the effects be short-term (like spills that have already occurred) or chronic and lower dose (like drainage from abandoned coal mines)? The impacts of either could be devastating to aquatic resources in Pennsylvania.

"I am cautiously pessimistic. I think bad things are going to continue happening but hold onto hope that our state agencies and the gas industry will be able to avoid disaster."

Wallace, too, is big on hope.

"You know what, the genie is out of the bottle," he says. "What we now have to do is put science out front and let the science dictate how fast we go into areas, how much we withdraw water, how many drill pads we can put in forested areas before there is an impact.

"When you ask if there is any way to do all of this in an environmentally sound way — not at the levels they want to increase it, not at the rate they want to do it. It will impact the streams, it will fragment the forests — it's already doing that, so it's not make believe.

"We can't depend on state government to monitor it. The state Department of Environmental Protection is woefully understaffed and they don't have this priority.

"My hope is the industry is going to take this scientific evidence (from stream monitoring) and put it into their system. Instead of trying to figure out ways around it through politics, why hide any of this stuff?. We all want more energy, we all want the environment to be safe, we all want to be healthy, so why not?

"If we can't hope that this is going to happen, then why are we in the game? We have to do our job as scientists, as concerned citizens and as politicians. We have to do our job not just for the preservation of our economy and our way of life, but also for the environment.

"If you've trashed the environment, you've trashed your way of life."
acrable@lnpnews.com
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