Relief pitchers, specifically closers, are once again the topic of the final installment of a fantasy baseball preview. The reason that the closer is the ultimate position to undergo analysis is that it is the most difficult to predict and the easiest in which an owner can find a suitable option on the free-agent wire during the season.
Every year, closers either get hurt or become ineffective, allowing heretofore unheralded moundsmen to get a chance to accumulate saves. In 2010, two of the best closers in baseball were the Rangers' Neftali Feliz, who went on to win the AL Rookie of the Year Award, and Milwauee's John Axford. Neither Feliz nor Axford began last season as the closer for his respective team.
An additional unreliable aspect of closers is that, near the trade deadline, teams will consider sending their closer to a contending team, where he will act as a setup man. This sort of deal opens the door for a different pitcher to assume the closer role for the final two months of the year. That there has been 33 different pitchers convert at least 25 saves in a season since 2008 further portrays the fickleness at the end of the pitching staff.
Despite the erratic nature of the position, some men have become stalwarts in the ninth inning.
Joakim Soria has spent three full seasons as the fireman in Kansas City, where he has averaged 38 saves a year and struck out 10 batters per nine innings. He has yielded almost exactly a base runner per inning, and even though the Royals do not provide Soria with as many opportunities as better teams, he has converted 91 percent of his chances.
Brian Wilson has become one of the most dominant closers in the game in the last three seasons. He recorded 41 saves with a 4.62 ERA, 1.444 WHIP and 9.7 K/9 ratio in 2008; by 2010, he had 48 saves, a 1.81 ERA, a 1.179 WHIP and was striking out 11.2 batters every nine innings. Wilson has one of the more interesting personalities in baseball, but that has not deterred him from developing into the NL's most fearsome stopper.
San Diego's Heath Bell and the Cubs' Carlos Marmol are more alternatives as top-of-the-line closers. Bell has averaged 45 saves as a closer and posted a 1.93 ERA in 2010 with more than 11 whiffs per nine. Marmol is a strikeout machine, punching out 138 in 2010. He had 38 saves, but his drawback is his frequent inability to throw strikes, evidenced by his six walks per nine.
Quite a few teams have young relievers who could make an impact in fantasy baseball during 2011. The Atlanta Braves have two formidable arms at the back of their bullpen, with Jonny Venters and Craig Kimbrel. Venters had a 1.95 ERA last season, and Kimbrel surrendered just one earned run and struck out 40 batters in 20.2 innings pitched. Washington's Drew Storen and Tampa Bay's Jake McGee will also see success as they enter the closer's role for the first time.
A worthwhile tactic when examining closers is to draft one or two setup men who have an opportunity to take over the closer's job at some point during the season. Brian Fuentes is a good option in Oakland, where Andrew Bailey is suffering from arm problems. Other non-closing relievers to keep in mind are Rafael Soriano (in case Mariano Rivera shows signs of age), Boston's Daniel Bard and Chris Sale of the White Sox.
Two closers who are not worth drafting very high are Francisco Cordero and Jonathan Broxton. Cordero had 40 saves for Cincinnati in 2010, yet he had his highest ERA and WHIP since becoming a closer in 2002. His strikeout rate was the lowest in nine years. Broxton followed up a tremendous 2009 with a disappointing campaign. He had only 22 saves and set career-worst marks in ERA (4.04), WHIP (1.476), walk rate (4.0) and strikeout rate (10.5).
My closer rankings: 1. Joakim Soria, Royals; 2. Brian Wilson, Giants; 3. Heath Bell, Padres; 4. Neftali Feliz, Rangers; 5. Mariano Rivera, Yankees; 6. Carlos Marmol, Cubs; 7. John Axford, Brewers; 8. Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox; 9. Jose Valverde, Tigers; 10. J.J. Putz, Diamondbacks.
11. Chris Perez, Indians; 12. Leo Nunez, Marlins; 13. Matt Thornton, White Sox; 14. Francisco Rodriguez, Mets; 15. Francisco Cordero, Reds; 16. Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers; 17. Joe Nathan, Twins; 18. Drew Storen, Nationals; 19. Jake McGee, Rays; 20. David Aardsma, Mariners.
Dan Massey's Fantasy Sports appears each Sunday. Email him at dmassey@lnpnews.com.
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