For Nittany Nation as for the American one, this feels like a year of diminished expectations.

Beginning with the watershed 2005 season, Penn State's football team has averaged more than 10 wins a year, won or shared two Big Ten Conference titles, and won four bowl games in five tries.

Who's done much better in that stretch? It's arguable that that success has been a little underrated nationally.

Problem: It's easy to quickly come to expect it, or hard to remember that in the five years previous to '05, the Nittany Lions were 26-33.

On paper (at the very least), a cold splash of reality looms this fall.

There's a strange, transitional feel to this season. Head coach/cultural icon Joe Paterno is six wins from his unprecedented 400th.

But at age 83 after an offseason of health woes, there are serious questions about JoePa's physical ability to do his job.

Also, this is the last year before Nebraska joins the Big Ten and turns it into a 12-team, two-division loop with a conference championship game.

Back in Happy Valley, the Nittany Lions enter this season with a quarterback situation and an offensive line situation for which the term "up in the air" seems inadequate to the point of silly.

The vague consensus seems to be that the defense will be fine, and will keep the Lions in games until the offense finds itself.

Perhaps. But the defense lost four NFL draftees, at key spots, without clear replacements.

Then there's the schedule, which includes an unprecedented three games with teams that won BCS bowls a year ago (preseason No. 1 Alabama, No. 2 Ohio State and No. 10 Iowa). All with tons of talent returning. All on the road.

If any of those games were played today, Penn State would be a double-figure underdog.

These truths seem to put a ceiling on what's possible. Is that ceiling flimsy plaster or solid rock?

A closer look:

Offense
The offense scored 214 points in eight Big Ten games last year, or just under 27 per game.

A harder look at the numbers reveals some odd little things.

The Lions were first in the Big Ten is pass efficiency, first in red-zone efficiency, first in third-down conversions and tied for first in fourth-down conversions and allowed the second-fewest sacks.

They had a positive turnover margin by half a turnover per game. They were the second-least-penalized team in the league and had the third-most penalties called against opponents.

With a new QB and a rebuilt OL, how likely is any of that to happen again?

Quarterback: Redshirt sophomore Matt McGloin leads soph Kevin Newsome and true-freshmen Paul Jones and Robert Bolden for the gig that was supposed to be Pat Devlin's.

Remember Pat Devlin?

Bet on McGloin to start the season-opening scrimmage with Youngstown State. Don't bet on him starting every game, though.

Bolden has been the talk of the preseason. He's said to possess both drop-back and running QB skills and exceptional intangibles. He's ahead of Jones and perhaps even Newsome even though Newsome played a little last year and Jones enrolled last spring, which Bolden didn't.

None of these guys has played any college football worth talking about.

"Before it's all over we'll probably have a decent quarterback," JoePa said at media day.

"Whether we're going to have a great one this year, you know, that's maybe a long shot."

O-Line: Stefen Wisniewski, a tough, cerebral junior, returns to guard after a year at center. Doug Klopacz, a senior the coaches like a lot, is the new center.

Senior Lou Eliades, juniors DeOn'tae Pannell and Johnnie Troutman and sophomore Matt Stankiewitch all played last year. None played quite well enough.

"Well, we're not very good right now, our offensive line," Paterno said. "We've got two or three guys that I think can play right now. The others we're going to have to work hard with."

Two tight ends, Andrew Quarless and Mickey Shuler, were lost to the NFL. Massive (6-6, 255) junior Andrew Szczerba is the likely new guy.

Penn State has terrible trouble turning over o-lines, and terrible trouble playing offense without a decent one.

Running back: Evan Royster isn't the fastest, shiftiest or most powerful running back in Penn State history. If healthy, he's a few months from becoming the program's all-time leading rusher.

He needs 481 yards to break College Football Hall of Famer Curt Warner's school record of 3,398.

The Lions are in good shape here. Explosive junior Stephfon Green waits his turn. The spies say true-frosh Silas Redd is a powerful, bruising runner to watch.

Wide receiver: Curtis Drake was going to be the next Derrick Williams (at least) as a receiver and electric playmaker until he broke his leg Aug. 10. He was expected to miss 6-8 weeks.

He'll be missed but, again, there are a lot of options here.

Derek Moye and Manheim Central's Graham Zug combined for 94 catches and 13 TDs last year. They should be among the Big Ten's better wideouts. Fifth-year senior Brett Brackett is still around.

Potential big-play guys include redshirt freshman Shawney Kersey, who had the Blue-White game's only TDs, and diminutive (5-7, 160) sprinter Devon Smith.

Defense
The D allowed 15 points (second to Ohio State) and 310 yards (third, behind OSU and Iowa) per conference game last year. It was third in the Big Ten against the rush and fifth against the pass.

It'll be possible to match those numbers but not easy, and probably necessary.

D-line: Jared Odrick, the All-American and first-round NFL draft pick from Lebanon, will be sorely missed.

His replacement at tackle/anchor figures to be Devon Still, who's about Odrick's exact size (6-5, 311) and approaches his potential.

"When he first got here he was a little lazy," Paterno said. "He's really gotten to where he's a leader. He's done very, very well."

It's seems about time for junior Jack Crawford, who'll play alongside Still at left end, to fulfill his enormous potential.

Linebackers: Last year's starters — Sean Lee, Josh Hull and Navorro Bowman — were the team's three leading tacklers and NFL draftees.

The Lions have athletes and depth here, but nothing like the experience and polish those three brought.

The presumptive starters are seniors Chris Colasanti and Bani Gbadyu (37 tackles) and junior Nate Stupar.

One of those guys, probably Stuper, figures to be usurped by presumptive star Mike Mauti, a redshirt soph who might have started last year had he not blown a knee ligament.

There is a cast of many behind those, including soph Gerald Hodges and true freshman Khairi Fortt, both blue-chip recruits.

Secondary: All four starters — corners D'Anton Lynn and Stephon Morris, safeties Nick Sukay and Drew Astorino — are back, and its assumed that this group will be a reliable strength.

Well, maybe. The pass defense was just fifth in the conference last year. Penn State played one team that could really throw the ball, Northwestern, and seemed in trouble against the Wildcats until QB, current Philadelphia Eagle Mike Kafka, got hurt.

One of Penn State's best athletes, junior Chaz Powell, has moved to corner from wide receiver. He'll have to get on the field somehow.

Special Teams
The Lions seem, um, very adequate here. Pretty vanilla. No huge positives or negatives.

Senior Collin Wagner returns at kicker. He's OK, and wasn't relied on much. He kicked just eight field goals.

The punter will be Anthony Fera, a redshirt freshman and Wagner's backup, or sophomore Russell Nye or, perhaps, Zug, who punted at Manheim Central.

Powell and Green will return kickoffs. The punt returners are soph Justin Brown or perhaps Zug. The tiny but explosive Smith should find a role here.

Prediction
No sensible person would pick Penn State to beat Alabama, Ohio State or Iowa, or to lose to Youngstown State, Kent State, Temple or Indiana.

So a season prediction comes down to the other five games: Illinois, Oct. 9; at Minnesota Oct. 23; Michigan Oct. 30; Northwestern Nov. 6; and Michigan State Nov. 27.

If they win four of those five — and all but one are at the Beav — that makes 8-4 and New Year's Day in, oh, let's say Jacksonsville, at the Gator Bowl.

Mike Gross is assistant sports editor of the Sunday News. E-mail him at mgross@lnpnews.com.