Republicans Pat Toomey and Tom Corbett are running far ahead of their Democratic opponents in congressional and gubernatorial contests here, a new Franklin & Marshall College Poll shows.

It's not difficult to understand why.

When things go wrong, the party in power — in this case the Democrats — gets kicked around. In the 16 midterm elections since World War II, the party in power has been able to pick up only twice, in terms of picking up seats in Congress. Neither of those times came when the economy was bad.

Just to recap where we are now.

The economy — the No. 1 issue — is still in the tank, and the unemployment rate is stuck on high.

And Pennsylvania is heading in the wrong direction, according to residents of the state.

In other words, things look bleak for Democrats this fall, the F&M Poll found.

"You have an unpopular president and an unpopular governor and a party that's not motivated," said poll director G. Terry Madonna. "National issues dominate everything, and when they dominate everything in this political environment, it's a rejection of the Democratic Party's agenda.

"The question is not will the Democrats lose," Madonna said, "but how badly the loss will be."

In the U.S. Senate race, Toomey, a former congressman from the Lehigh Valley, is beating U.S. Rep. Joe Sestak by 9 percentage points — 40 percent to 31 percent — among likely voters, the poll found. The contest is closer among all registered voters, with Toomey leading by only 3 points.

Voter preference in that race is largely driven by feelings about President Barack Obama and Congress. Among Toomey supporters, 56 percent say their vote is mainly a vote against the president. Among Sestak supporters, 57 percent say their vote will be cast in support of Obama.

In the race for governor, Corbett, the state's attorney general, is beating Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato by 11 percentage points — 38 percent to 27 percent — among likely voters, the poll found. Among all registered voters, Corbett enjoys only a 1-point lead.

Onorato's problem is that he's a Democrat trying to succeed a relatively unpopular governor. Only 30 percent of registered voters believe Gov. Ed Rendell is doing an excellent or good job. Sixty-eight percent say he's doing a poor or fair job.

Still, a large number voters, about one in three, remain undecided in both races.

The F&M Poll surveyed 577 adult residents of the state, including 485 of whom are registered to vote and 377 who said they are likely to vote. The margin of error among all registered voters is +/- 4.4 percentage points. Among likely voters it is +/- 5.4 percentage points.

The poll was conducted between Aug. 16 and Monday.

Among other findings:

• Only 30 percent of Pennsylvanians believe the state is headed in the right direction, down from 50 percent in August 2006, before the last midterm election in which there were races for both U.S. Senate and governor here.

• Voters say the most important problem now is the economy, whereas it was taxes four years ago.

• Only 37 percent of voters feel President Barack Obama is doing an excellent or good job. In 2006, 33 percent of voters approved of Republican President George W. Bush's performance.

• When it comes to enthusiasm, Republicans voters have a substantial edge. The number of Republican voters who say they're interested and "very likely to vote" this fall is 8 percentage points greater than the number of Democrats who feel the same way.

"The Democratic Party's difficulty in this election is their voters do not have the same motivation and they're less likely to vote," said Madonna. "That is a huge problem for them."

tmurse@lnpnews.com