“For the average person, it would be very difficult to get up six, seven, eight times a day and speak without making any mistakes, without saying something a little goofy,” he says.
Big turnout Tuesday?
Could be, say the folks running Franklin & Marshall College’s Keystone Poll.
In a survey of 626 registered voters released this week, 86 percent said they are “certain to vote.” And 56 percent said they are “very interested” in the campaigns.
Those numbers are significantly higher than those recorded in earlier polls.
In October 2002, 74 percent were “certain to vote” and only 39 percent were “very interested.” In the end, only 38 percent voted statewide that year.
In October 1998, 79 percent were “certain” and a paltry 30 percent were “very interested.” That year, only 33 percent voted.
The Keystone Poll predicts a 54-percent turnout this Tuesday because of the high level of interest.
“We know that campaigns that are competitive create interest, and the more candidates spend on advertising and campaigning, the more interest they tend to generate,” says Berwood Yost, director of the Floyd Institute Center for Opinion Research at F&M.
And when it comes to high-profile, high-spending races and the potential for big change, Pennsylvania’s got it all this year at both the state and federal levels.
“Up and down the ballot you have things that should interest voters,” Yost says.
Speaking of money ...
The Washington, D.C.-based Center for Responsive Politics estimates that the races for control of the U.S. House and Senate “will be the most expensive midterm election ever.”
How expensive?
About $2.6 billion will be spent by candidates, national political parties and advocacy groups by the end of the year, CRP estimates. That amount is 18 percent more than what was spent in 2002.
Santorum here Sunday
Republican U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum, whom polls show trailing Democrat Bob Casey Jr., will attend a rally at Lancaster County GOP headquarters Sunday afternoon.
His appearance will be part of a four-day swing through Pennsylvania in the days leading up to Tuesday’s election. Virginia Davis, Santorum’s campaign spokeswoman, said the senator will arrive at headquarters, 902 Columbia Ave., for a 12:30 p.m. appearance.
Santorum was in Johnstown, his parents’ hometown, with his wife and children Thursday night. At a fire hall filled with GOP faithful, Santorum received a standing ovation when he said his family would use prayer as their “secret weapon” to lead them to victory over his challenger, The AP reported.
“This is the stretch run,” Santorum said. “We thought we’d start it right here where my family got its start in Johnstown, Pennsylvania.”
Fighting words
Democrat Jason Leisey, whose career in the Army National Guard was ended by a suicide bomber in Iraq, says his opponent in the race for state Senate belittled his military career in a mailer and should apologize.
Republican Mike Brubaker’s ad compares his record to Leisey’s on “educational leadership.” Brubaker cited his own work on the Ephrata and Warwick educational foundations and as an adviser to Ephrata Area Young Farmers.
Under the same category, the mailer lists “none” for Leisey.
Leisey took offense. “The life and death decisions that I have had to make I made on my own, not with the help of a board of directors sitting around a conference table,” he said in a news release to the New Era.
Kathryn Tran, a spokeswoman for Brubaker’s campaign, said Leisey is misinterpreting the mailer. “There was nothing in this literature piece that was even remotely disrespectful to veterans,” Tran said. “We believe this ... piece to be fair and accurate. I know firsthand that Mike has the utmost respect for every man and woman that has ever worn a military uniform.”
The mailer notes that Leisey “served with honor in the Army National Guard.”
Endorsements
Lois Herr, who is challenging U.S. Rep. Joe Pitts, picked up an endorsement from fellow Democrat and Clay Township Supervisor Jon Price this morning.
Earlier in the week, Herr announced she had also gotten support from the Alliance for Retired Americans, the United Labor Council of Reading and Berks Counties, the American Postal Workers Union Local 95, the United Association of Journeymen and Apprentices of the Plumbing and Pipe Fitting Industry of the United States, and the Sierra Club.
Also in the 16th Congressional District race, independent John Murphy said he’s been endorsed by the Web ’zine Wicked Philosophy, which says it is “dedicated to progressive thought, social justice, the environment, the arts, and politics.”
In the race for state House in the 37th District, state Rep. Tom Creighton said he’s backed by Pennsylvania Right to Work, the Pro-life Federation, Associated Builders and Contractors, National Rifle Association, Farm Bureau, Farmers Allied for Responsive More Effective Representation, the state Builders Association, Fraternal Order of Police and Pennsylvania Chamber of Business and Industry.
Creighton, a Republican, faces Lee Heffner, a Democrat, in Tuesday’s election.
Need a lift?
The Lancaster County Republican Committee will offer free rides to the polls for anyone who needs them on Tuesday, Chairman Dave Dumeyer announced this week.
Anyone needing a lift can call party headquarters at 392-4165 anytime between now and the close of polls at 8 p.m. Tuesday. The driver is Ralph Buckles.
Prime-time Tuesday
If you’re sitting around the tube after the polls close on Election Day wondering what it all means, these folks will be there to help:
Chris Borick of Muhlenburg College, Mike Young of Michael Young Strategic Research, Manor Township resident and former state Rep. John Barley of Wolff Strategies, former Lt. Gov. Mark Singel of the Winter Group, Tony May of Triad Strategies, and Charlie Gerow of Quantum Communications will offer their insight on the results on PCN, the Pennsylvania Cable Network.
Live coverage begins at 8 p.m. and will continue through the night.
A complete listing of PCN affiliates and network channel designations is on PCN’s Web site at www.pcntv.com.
Scaring up donations
Leisey said his Halloween bash last weekend raised $250 for Camp Susquehanna, a camp for children burn survivors founded in memory of M. Elvin Byler, who died of burns he suffered in a plane crash.
Leisey and his wife, Katie, held the event at their Mountville home. For a $10 donation to the camp, children got a pumpkin to decorate, a treat bag and were entertained by Heather the Goofy Witch and Turk the Terrible Pirate.
“We had about 30 kids, all dressed up, played games, made candy apples and raised money for a great cause,” Leisey said.
Your political calendar
TUESDAY: Election Day. Polls open at 7 a.m. and close at 8 p.m.
THURSDAY: The Ephrata Area Chamber of Commerce hosts a retirement dinner for Sen. Noah Wenger, who is retiring after 30 years in the Legislature. Cost: $50 for chamber members, $75 for non-members. Time: 5:30 p.m. reception, 6:30 p.m. dinner. Location: The Ballroom at Doneckers in Ephrata. Contact: the chamber at 738-9010 or at ephcoc@dejazzd.com.
Totally useless trivia
We picked up the latest numbers on voter registration in Lancaster County this week.
And ...
1.) The reddest, or most Republican, voting district is Leacock Township in eastern Lancaster County. A full 80.4 percent of its 1,726 registered voters are Republicans.
Only 9.6 percent are Democrats.
2.) The bluest, or most Democratic, voting district is Lancaster City’s 7th Ward, 7th Precinct, in the southeast. There, 60.2 percent of the 595 registered voters are Democrats.
Only 22.7 percent are Republicans.
3.) The only district among all 232 countywide where there are the same number of Republicans as Democrats is Lancaster Township’s 2nd District, near Hamilton Park.
There are 285 Rs and 285 Ds.
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Politically Speaking ends today. It will return before the 2007 primary.
