The two-term Republican has fallen farther behind Democrat Bob Casey Jr. in the race for U.S. Senate as voters grow more concerned about the war in Iraq and less comfortable with his often combative style.

“There’s been a huge shift away from a fairly tight race to a demonstrable — if not insurmountable — lead for Casey,” said G. Terry Madonna, the director of Franklin & Marshall College’s Center for Politics and Public Affairs.

Casey has opened up a 15-point lead over Santorum among registered voters, doubling his advantage since September, according to the F&M statewide Keystone Poll released this morning.

In a separate finding, the poll shows that Democratic Gov. Ed Rendell is well positioned to win a second term: He has expanded his lead over Republican Lynn Swann to 25 points with only six days until Election Day.

“Republicans don’t like to hear this, but Rendell has delivered on the commitments he made,” said Madonna. “He may have a different style and personality than the midstate cares for, but the state’s in reasonably good shape.”

The Keystone Poll was conducted by F&M’s Center for Opinion Research between Oct. 25 and Sunday.

In the U.S. Senate race, Casey, the state treasurer, now leads Santorum 53 percent to 38 percent in a survey of 626 registered voters. The margin of error is 3.9 percent.

Of 335 voters who said they are likely to vote in Tuesday’s election, Casey held an even larger, 17-point, lead — 56 percent to 39 percent. The margin of error there is 5.4 percent.

Here’s why Casey’s winning, said Madonna:

Santorum’s getting more unpopular. In fact, 46 percent of voters held a negative opinion of him in the new poll. That’s up from 37 percent in August and September and 33 percent in May.

“Rick’s unfavorables are the highest since we’ve been doing polls,” says Madonna. “That’s remarkable. I think it’s been the shrillness, the harshness of his campaign. The stridency, the negative commercials, the bad national environment for Republicans — I think there’s a conflation of all those things going on.”

In fact, 33 percent of those surveyed said they are voting against Santorum, not necessarily for Casey.

“There is no doubt in my mind that this race is about Santorum, and it has little to do with Casey,” Madonna said. “You just have to be a reasonable alternative, a sane alternative. And by running a quiet, low-key campaign, what Casey has done is become the antithesis of Santorum, and that’s worked in his favor.”

This election’s all about Iraq. Voters are growing increasingly worried about the war and less worried about the issue on which Santorum has been focused, terrorism.

One in three, or 33 percent, said Iraq was their biggest concern in October, up from 22 percent in September. Only 12 percent said their biggest worry was terrorism, down from 21 percent in September.

“He’s going around doing this ‘gathering storm’ speech all across the state,” Madonna said. “But Santorum’s fundamental problem is he is talking about an issue that is of declining importance to voters.

“There isn’t any doubt the focus he’s on right now could be 100 percent correct,” Madonna added. “But it’s not a message voters find appealing, and I think that’s his problem when he goes out there and he gets strident and shows not so much emotion but this confrontational style.”

Santorum’s ties to Bush are hurting him. The senator may have gotten a slight bump in the polls in September, when Bush’s approval ratings were up a little bit in Pennsylvania. But now Bush’s numbers are down, and so are Santorum’s.

In fact, 57 percent held a negative opinion of Bush in the new poll, up from 50 percent in September. And 43 percent said Bush is doing a poor job, up from 36 in September.

“That’s not huge, but it is a factor in this race,” Madonna said.

In a separate poll of likely voters conducted by Quinnipiac University, Casey led Santorum by 10 points, 52 percent to 42 percent. The same poll had Casey with a six-point advantage in September.

“Bob Casey remains strong,” said Clay Richards, the Quinnipiac pollster.

Casey’s campaign manager, Jay Reiff, said, “All the polls clearly show that voters want change in Washington, but the only poll that counts is on Election Day. Treasurer Casey will continue to work hard and get his message out.”

Santorum’s campaign spokeswoman, Virginia Davis, called the new numbers “completely unreliable” and said the senator is much closer to Casey.

“We’re seeing polls that are all over the map. To put stock in one over another just doesn’t make sense,” she said.

“Senator Santorum has made a significant investment in grassroots efforts and voter turnout, and that return is not seen until Election Day,” Davis said. “They can add up to several points — less than 10, perhaps around 5.”

Meanwhile, among the 626 registered voters surveyed in the Keystone Poll about the race for governor, Rendell leads Swann 58 percent to 33 percent; among the 335 likely voters, the governor leads 59 percent to 34 percent.

Swann’s biggest problem, says Madonna, is that Rendell’s approval ratings are relatively high, and almost half of those surveyed — 47 percent — believe the state is headed in the right direction.

“You also have a different situation where the general environment favors Democrats so much this year,” he said. “Rendell has raised prodigious amounts of money, he started commercials in April, and he’s been running them continually ever since.

“In this environment, I don’t think it’s so much Swann as it is an incumbent dream scenario,” Madonna said.

The Quinnipiac poll has Rendell leading Swann by 23 points, 58 percent to 35 percent. The university’s September poll had the governor up by 16 points, 55 percent to Swann’s 39 percent.

The Quinnpiac poll, which surveyed 933 Pennsylvania voters who said they are likely to cast ballots in Tuesday’s election, was conducted by telephone between Oct. 23 and Sunday. The sampling error margin was plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Swann spokesman Leonardo Alcivar said voters shouldn’t put too much stock in the polls.

“The reality is that there have been, for the past two weeks, almost daily polls that show a variance of anywhere from 7 to 25 points,” he said. “We know that somewhere within those numbers lies the real state of the race.

“The reality is we don’t believe these polls. This is not a 25-point race,” Alcivar said.

Rendell campaign spokesman Dan Fee said the Democrat’s campaign was “gratified” over the poll results, “but it doesn’t change anything we’re going to do in the remaining days.”

The F&M poll was commissioned by the Philadelphia Daily News, The Patriot-News in Harrisburg, WGAL-TV in Lancaster, the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review and WTAE-TV in Pittsburgh.

CONTACT US: tmurse@LNPnews.com or 481-6021

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