Winter could be snowier than usual

We just might be in store for a snowy winter.

But don't grease up the toboggan just yet.

Early indications for a whiter-than-normal winter are coming from a weathermaker that is happening on the other side of the globe.

Whether it strengthens or weakens will be the key, said Millersville University meteorologist Eric Horst.

The weathermaker is called El Niño, which is the warming of the waters of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The phenomenon occurs about every two to five years and typically lasts about a year.

In the United States, El Niño propels storms that track across the southern United States and up the East Coast.

How strong El Niño gets will determine if those storms produce snow or rain.

During weak or moderate El Niños, the air is cold enough to produce snow in the Northeast.

For example, the winter of 2002-2003 was a weak El Niño year. The county got 63.2 inches of snow that winter.

During strong El Niños, the air is too warm to produce snow from storms, and most of the precipitation is plain old rain. The winter of 1997-98 was a strong El Niño year. The county got just 7.6 inches of snow.

At this point, El Niño is moderate. If it stays that way, or weakens slightly, we could have a snowy winter.

If El Niño strengthens, we likely will have a rainy winter.

The strength of the cycle can change from month to month, Horst said, so "snow lovers shouldn't get too wound up yet and be placing bets."

He also said, "This could be one of those years when we see our first snow showers in November.

"This winter, we're going to see the southern storm track," Horst said. "We're going to have opportunities."

How this will play out will become a bit clearer around Thanksgiving.

AccuWeather Forecast

Starting today, these next few days will feel kind of blustery and unsettled, with wind chills in the 40s.

A mild preview of things to come — maybe.

cstauffer@lnpnews.com