As August starts, America turns its collective attention from its erstwhile pastime to its present obsession. Training camps for NFL teams are now underway, and fantasy (and not to mention real-life) football is on the horizon.

Fantasy owners that have not started to mentally prepare for their football drafts will do so in short order. Analysis for that draft preparation begins under center, with the quarterback position. More than other years, many quarterbacks carry a relatively high level of risk into the season.

We will not necessarily see a changing of the guard at the quarterback position in 2009, yet several of this decade's most reliable quarterbacks create uncertainty this fall. Tom Brady missed all of last season with a knee injury. Peyton Manning has a new head coach. Kurt Warner is injury-prone (2008 notwithstanding) and in the twilight of his career.

The one signal caller with little risk and great numbers over the past few years is Drew Brees. Not only is Brees younger and healthier than Brady, Manning and Warner, the New Orleans field general is a better stat-stuffer.

Brees and Manning are the only quarterbacks to surpass 4,000 yards in each of the last three years. Carson Palmer is the only other player with even two 4,000-yard seasons since 2006.

Although Brees throws a lot of interceptions, fantasy owners who lose a few points from Brees' picks are not suffering a material consequence in light of the 4,500 yards and 25 touchdowns he is sure to bestow upon them.

Tom Brady set the NFL record with 50 touchdowns in 2007. His 2008 season was just 11 pass attempts long before he blew out his knee.

If the Patriots had any sense that Brady would not be ready to return to his previous form, they would not have allowed Matt Cassel and his 3,693 yards to head to Kansas City. Expect Brady to threaten 4,000 yards and between 25 and 30 scores.

One quarterback threw for 4,002 yards and 27 touchdowns in 16 games last year. Another passed for 4,038 yards and 28 touchdowns in 16 games. One is Peyton Manning; the other, Aaron Rodgers.

Manning's experience gives him the slight edge over the Green Bay youngster, but the difference between the two is minimal. Rodgers also ran for over 200 yards and four touchdowns. Manning had 21 yards and a single score.

With merely one proven wide receiver and a two-pronged running attack, Manning has the potential to be a disappointment from a fantasy perspective in 2009. If owners can grab Rodgers in the fourth round, they will get a great value.

Jay Cutler alienated the Bronco brass in the off-season, and he is now a member of the Chicago Bears. Cutler put up excellent numbers in Denver, but he is now in a more run-oriented system.

Furthermore, his best wide receiver is a converted defensive back with questionable hands. Even though Cutler is a good mid-round value, owners should not rely on him as a top-tier starter.

Matt Cassel may well have been a one-year wonder filling in for Tom Brady last fall. Cassel, however, has a head coach (Todd Haley) who loves to throw the ball, a wide receiver (Dwayne Bowe) who is ready for a breakout season and the ability to relive 2008.

My quarterback rankings are as follows:

1. Drew Brees, Saints; 2. Tom Brady, Patriots; 3. Peyton Manning, Colts; 4. Aaron Rodgers, Packers; 5. Tony Romo, Cowboys; 6. Philip Rivers, Chargers; 7. Matt Schaub, Texans; 8. Kurt Warner, Cardinals; 9. Matt Cassel, Chiefs; 10. Donovan McNabb, Eagles.

11. Matt Ryan, Falcons; 12. Jay Cutler, Bears; 13. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers; 14. Eli Manning, Giants; 15. Kyle Orton, Broncos; 16. Carson Palmer, Bengals; 17. Matt Hasselbeck, Seahawks; 18. Jake Delhomme, Panthers; 19. Trent Edwards, Bills; 20. David Garrard, Jaguars.

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Dan Massey's Fantasy Sports appears each week. E-mail him at dmassey@lnpnews.com.
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