Pat Toomey, the Republican whose insurgent 2004 U.S. Senate run nearly knocked off Arlen Specter, announced today he will challenge the veteran lawmaker again in 2010.

And supporters here in Lancaster County — the epicenter of Toomey's conservative base — believe their candidate's got a much better chance of winning this time around.

"The political landscape has changed immensely," said Bob Kettering, who chairs the conservative Lancaster County ACTION group. "We'll be helping Pat Toomey in every way we can."

Glen G. Beiler Jr., of Akron, who coordinated Toomey's 2004 campaign here, said: "It's a different political climate, and it's a different economic climate. There's no question it's going to be better for us."

Specifically, the Toomey campaign will try to tap into conservative outrage over the $787 billion economic stimulus bill. Specter, who has been in office for 29 years, enraged some members of his party by voting in favor of the plan — the only Senate Republican facing re-election in 2010 to support it.

They also believe Specter's base has significantly eroded since the fall, when an estimated 130,000 registered Republicans in Pennsylvania switched parties to vote in the Democratic presidential primary.

G. Terry Madonna, the director of Franklin & Marshall College's Center for Politics and Public Affairs, says he doubts that those voters will switch back to being Republicans in time for the 2010 primary.

"I think it's safe to say the majority were Specter Republicans — moderate in political ideology; Republicans for a long period of time; Republicans who would have voted for Specter," said Madonna. "I think that poses a special challenge for Specter."

Toomey nearly won the statewide primary in April 2004. The former three-term congressman from Zionsville came within 2 percentage points of beating Specter and got 57 percent of the vote here.

He announced this morning that he will challenge Specter again when he seeks the Republican nomination for a sixth term next year.

Toomey, who stepped down Monday as president of the Washington-based Club for Growth, appealed to his conservative base in a statement released just before 8 a.m., while he made a series of TV appearances in the Philadelphia area.

"Pennsylvanians deserve a voice in the U.S. Senate that will honor our values and fight for limited government, individual freedom and fiscal responsibility. I will be that voice," Toomey said.

Toomey, 47, had said earlier this year that he was considering a bid for the governorship in 2010. But his sights shifted back to the Senate in March, after Specter bucked party leaders and cast one of three GOP votes — all in the Senate — to pass the $787 federal economic stimulus package that President Barack Obama signed in February.

Specter, 79, one of a dwindling number of moderates in an increasingly conservative GOP, said he was voting his conscience, "not my own personal political interest." Toomey painted the stimulus package as part of a federal response to the recession that he said has put the nation "on a dangerously wrong path."

Toomey's announcement confirmed what had been virtually an open secret in recent weeks.

At a gathering of Pennsylvania conservatives last month, Toomey received a standing ovation when he assured supporters that "it is very, very likely that very soon I will be a candidate for the United States Senate."

The 2004 Specter-Toomey matchup split the Republican Party here in the county. Many voters were swayed in the final days of the campaign by phone calls made on Specter's behalf by then-President George W. Bush and then-U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum.

"There's no question that was a big boost," said Beiler. "I found that, at my poll, people were coming and wanting to vote for Pat but weren't sure because they had just gotten a call from the president."

Kettering said Specter's support of the stimulus plan will be the deciding factor this time around.

"Arlen Specter put the final nail in his coffin when he voted for that stimulus package," he said. "It's a different climate now. He wouldn't have won the last time without President Bush and Senator Santorum pleading for people to support Specter. There is no reason this time around."

Another factor working in Specter's favor in 2004 was a high turnout, because it was a presidential-election year. Next year is a mid-term election, and turnout, historically, has been much lower in those years, drawing out a higher percentage of ideological voters.

Still, says Madonna, Specter's vote in favor of the stimulus could work just as well for him as against him — depending on the economy between now and the primary.

"If we're in a recovery and voters look back at the votes he cast and believe they made a difference and helped improve the economy and their lives, the stimulus vote and other votes might well be viewed favorably by many Republicans," Madonna said. "If we're still in a recession, it's a killer for him."

Former Lancaster Mayor Charlie Smithgall, who worked for Specter here in 2004, said he will support him again but acknowledges the lawmaker has a much tougher battle in 2010 — "for his bailout votes."

"Arlen Specter is very good for the city of Lancaster and for the county of Lancaster," Smithgall said.

Asked about the 2010 campaign, county GOP Chairman Craig Ebersole said he and his committee members are focused on the upcoming elections.

"I told the respective (U.S. Senate) committees — a couple have called and asked for an endorsement — I said, 'No, and if you see my name on the other person's list, give me a call,'" Ebersole said.

"There are 41 townships, 18 boroughs, one third-class city and 17 public school districts here, and many of them have races this year," he said. "Our focus is on that."

(The Associated Press contributed to this report).


Staff writer Tom Murse can be reached at tmurse@LNPnews.com or 481-6021.