It's been a tough year for Lancaster County homeowners, builders and real estate professionals, but it's no time to panic.
That's the message from Lancaster County Association of Realtors, which reported Monday that home sales in the county were down by 13.7 percent in October compared to the same month a year ago.
In addition, the average home sale price fell 3.5 percent in October compared to the same period in 2007.
Jeff Funk, LCAR president, said the market is undergoing a continued correction and that its long-term health "will be better" because of it.
"Although we've experienced a slower rate of sales this year compared to last year, this is something that needed to happen in order to avoid problems like affordability issues," Funk said.
The average price of homes sold in Lancaster County in October dipped to $188,464 from $195,276 in 2007.
New listings in October fell by 6.5 percent. There were 693 homes listed for sale in October compared to 741 last year, but the current figure is still slightly above the average of 689 new listings for the month over the past five years.
Also, the median price of homes sold in the county has fallen only 0.5 percent so far in 2008. (The median price is the point at which half the properties sold during a period were above that price and half were below that price.)
The median price for homes sold in 2008 is $174,900, compared to $175,900 during the first 10 months of 2007.
Funk said that home prices are up 59.5 percent since October 1998, when the average home in the county sold for $118,146.
"Our message this year — a local housing market where there is a terrific selection, low mortgage rates and historically great investments — still rings true," Funk said.
He cited a report by Kiplinger.com suggesting things are better here than almost anywhere else in the country. The online magazine last week ranked Lancaster County as one of six areas that has seen steady growth.
Kiplinger ranked Lancaster County on the top of its "safe haven" list based partly on the fact Lancaster County has "kept unemployment and foreclosure rates below average."
Still, with foreclosures skyrocketing and home prices plummeting across the country, it's not the best time to be in the real estate or building businesses — even in Lancaster County.
McGraw-Hill Construction reported that contract values of new single- and two-family houses and apartments in the county in October dropped 83 percent compared to a year ago.
Commercial construction also fell in the county but not as badly; it was off 58 percent in October, according to McGraw-Hill. Total new building is off 46 percent for the year in Lancaster County.
Some real estate experts, including Jeff Geoghan, vice president of Coldwell Banker Select, predict things will get worse before they get better Geoghan wrote in his online blog that the market could "bottom out around 215 homes sold this coming January."
Though he said the local market is performing better than may be expected, "it's going to be a long winter with 1,231 Realtors active in a market with 215 homes sold."
E-mail: pburns@lnpnews.com