The parking lots are full.

But are the shopping bags full too?

Merchants are hoping they have the right merchandise — and the right prices — to convince cautious consumers to spend as usual today, Black Friday, and during the rest of the holiday shopping season.

With the economy unraveling, national forecasts call for the weakest season in years.

Merchants here and nationwide are fighting back by offering deeper and more widespread discounts, rolling out their deals in the pre-dawn hours this morning.

Consumers responded today by turning out in droves, as they typically do on Black Friday, the traditional start of the holiday shopping season.

Time will tell whether they're spending like they typically do.

Leading the way with midnight openings for the third consecutive year were the Rockvale and Tanger outlet malls. Stores at Park City and elsewhere got an early start today too.

"We had a very, very crazy night here," said Tanger's Chuck Simmons, shortly after dawn. "Traffic was through the roof. I don't have any firm figures, but I'd say traffic was probably greater than last year.

"Sales were certainly brisk and robust," the mall's general manager added.

"We've got retailers with nice, long lines," reported Rachel Gallagher, general manager of Park City Center. Stores there opened as early as 4 a.m.; parking lots were nearly filled by 6:30 a.m.

"Our traffic was busier than last year," observed Rockvale general partner David Ober. "We'll see if they spent as much. Because the discounts were better, the overall sales might be the same."

Ober saw signs in the first hours of Black Friday shopping that consumers were focused on finding the best deals.

"Our retailers who promoted the deepest discounts did the best. Our retailers who didn't do anything special were left behind. We had some big winners and we had some losers," he said.

As merchants enter this crucial time of year, even the cheeriest national forecasts are dour.

Both the National Retail Federation and the International Council of Shopping Centers are predicting sales growth of about 2 percent.

That would be the weakest since 2002 and half of the average sales growth posted during the past 10 years.

Among the bleakest outlooks is offered by Standard & Poor's Equity Research. It predicts a 5 percent decline, labeling the holiday shopping season "the gloomiest in recent decades."

Merchants here know what they're facing.

"Certainly people are watching their budgets a little more closely than in years past," said Gallagher of Park City, the county's largest mall with 170 stores.

"People will be out there looking for deals and there are deals to be had," she said.

"I think customers will be very selective," agreed Russ Colton, manager of the Ephrata Wal-Mart. "Customers will be looking for the right price."

But most merchants were optimistic that they had the right stuff to persuade shoppers to spend as usual, despite the deteriorating economy.

One exception was Willow Street Kmart manager Gina Pelletier, who believed her customers' more conservative spending habits would lead to less holiday business this season.

"I still see traffic coming through here. It's just that they're more selective about what they're purchasing," she said, noting that many shoppers "don't have the dollars to spend on" big-ticket items this season.

Most retailers here, though, expressed confidence that their stores will match or exceed the 2007 season's sales figures.

"I don't think it will be a down year," said Colton, voicing the upbeat attitude common among retailers. "Our expectation is to beat last year's numbers."

Colton said Wal-Mart is responding to the weak economy by offering more discounted items this Black Friday and "making sure we're the best price in town."

At The Bon-Ton, store manager Kim Krummerich also had a positive outlook, based on its increased "doorbusters" today (from about 150 items last year to more than 200) and its recently expanded and renovated store.

"I'm feeling bullish...," she said. "We have a lot of great values. When (shoppers) stack us up to the competition, they'll find our prices are very sharp. We've positioned ourselves to have a great day."

The two outlet leaders, Ober at Rockvale and Simmons at Tanger, likewise offered positive outlooks.

Ober, whose 120-store center is the county's second-largest mall, said the recent plunge in gasoline prices will help offset shopper worries about the economy.

Simmons believed that shoppers will relish finding "a shelter from the economic storm" in Tanger's wide selection of brand-name, "aggressively" discounted merchandise.


Staff writer Tim Mekeel can be reached at tmekeel@LNPnews.com or 481-6030.