Tuesday's election could produce a record turnout.

And that, advocates of the home rule charter agree, could be the charter's best shot at passage.

In a normal election cycle, the fact that the the county Republican committee is working against voter ratification of the charter would be the kiss of death. And it might still be; on Saturday, charter supporters issued a statement decrying what they called distortions and misrepresentations of the charter in GOP "robocalls" to Democratic and Republican voters.

Turnout is the wild card. Democrats expect more than 70 percent of their voters to participate, more than ever, with nearly 60 percent of independents.

The charter that voters are asked to approve would shift control of the way county government is structured from the state to the local level. The 11-member Lancaster County Government Study Commission has been drafting the charter over the last year.

Earlier, a poll indicated that few voters knew much about home rule. Both supporters and opponents have been ramping up their campaigns in the last few weeks, including the automated phone calls that GSC members criticized Saturday. They charged that Republican leaders are more interested in political patronage than uniting behind a reform effort.

County Republican Chairman Dave Dumeyer rejected that assertion as "a desperate attempt on their part" to salvage the charter.

"We're simply concerned that what they're putting out there is not good for Lancaster County," he said.

With both parties campaigning on "change" platforms in the hot presidential race, said Sam Mecum, one of two Democrats on the GSC, "it's hard to imagine a better time for this."

"The saving grace for the home rule ballot question," said Dr. G. Terry Madonna, Franklin & Marshall College's resident pundit, "just could be the large number of people who vote."

Charter on parade
Saturday, GSC members took their pro-home rule campaign to the streets of Millersville, where they marched in the annual Millersville Parade.

Minutes before the parade, Republican GSC members who support home rule held a press conference critical of the robocalls voters are receiving from GOP sources.

Calls to Republican voters identified the Republican Party as the sponsor of the message, which repeats GOP arguments that the charter will result in bigger government and higher taxes.

Democratic voters got calls from a political action committee, Citizens for Responsible Government. The message to Democrats is that home rule would give them less representation on the board of county commissioners.

Citizens for Responsible Government is funded by Republicans, including $1,000 each from the Manheim Township GOP and state Sen. Gib E. Armstrong's campaign committee, and $250 each from county Commissioners Scott Martin and Dennis Stuckey.

The calls are full of "myths and distortions," said GSC chairwoman Carol Phillips.

"As representatives of the Republican majority that made up the study commission," she said, "we are discouraged to find ourselves at odds with a party that claims to represent our best interests. To be clear, they do not represent ours, and we are compelled to say so."

Contrary to what GOP home rule opponents are saying, Phillips argued, "there is absolutely nothing in the charter that would raise taxes. Nothing." Instead, she said, the charter includes safeguards against excessive taxes.

She also dismissed arguments that the charter's county administrator would be an unelected chief executive with new powers; Phillips said the administrator would be hired, fired and supervised by the commissioners, just as the current administrator is.

The charter has no authority to infringe on the powers of municipal government, Phillips said, and instead gives citizens "more voice in their government structure and their government's decisions."

"We stand by the information we have provided to voters," said GOP Treasurer G. Scott Riekers. "This proposed charter is replete with unintended consequences. We have pointed out the facts, as well as what could potentially happen under the home rule charter."

Phillips said the Republican committee "seems intent on representing the narrow interests of the party elite," and another Republican GSC member, Vice Chairman John Smucker, said in a statement that the committee is protecting "a narrow, parochial interest in a system of perks and party patronage."

"Some people are trying to turn this into a partisan issue," Riekers said. "It is not. It is about maintaining a government structure which encourages and fosters a great environment to raise a family. Curiously, the Democratic Party does not support the home rule charter, either."

Democrats have taken a neutral stand on the charter.     

Dumeyer said the committee sees some value in parts of the charter, including multiyear budgeting and expansion of the board of commissioners from three to five.

But the county administrator's expanded duties, he said, plus "a very low threshold" for the number of voter signatures required for the initiative and referendum provision, could escalate government costs.

"I think that's what we're worried about," he said.

The 'X' factor
The home rule battle has driven a wedge between Republicans. Three of the nine Republican GSC members, who were endorsed by the party, have fought home rule from the start, and the other six are upset at the party's stand.

"I am extremely disheartened by the leadership of Lancaster County's Republican Party, which I have supported and been a member of for decades," Smucker said.

The party committee was nearly unanimous in rejecting the charter, but former congressman Bob Walker, who endorsed home rule, has chided the GOP for shortsightedness.

Some charter opponents in the party also have called into question the motives of the Lancaster Chamber of Commerce & Industry and the Lancaster County Association of Realtors, both of which back the charter. While no one wants to go on the record about it, some members of the business groups privately have expressed resentment.

Several organizations, including the political arms of the chamber, LCAR and Citizens for Home Rule, are funding the pro-home rule campaign, which faces an uphill battle because of Republican opposition.

Chamber President Tom Baldrige said a poll in September indicated not many voters were aware of the charter.

"I continue to think if a poll was done today, it would still be dominated by 'undecided' or 'unaware,'" he said.

Yard signs and Web sites had been the primary weapons for both sides until the end of the campaign, when advocates began running TV and radio ads and the GOP began robocalling.

To turn out the vote, home rule advocates will be trying to cover as many polling places as possible with volunteers. The GOP already has its election-day troops in place.

"We feel very good about the effort that we're putting forth," Dumeyer said. "I think we'll get the outcome we're looking for."

Bruce Beardsley, the county Democrats' chairman, said the party executive committee decided not to advocate for or against the charter.

"There are too many good things in it to oppose it outright, and the big issues —the makeup, salary and election of the board of commissioners and continuing to elect row offices — were so bad that we could not support it," he said.

Beardsley said Democrats are "truly divided on the issue, although more Democrats will probably be supportive than will oppose it. The vast majority of independents will not vote on the issue. The Republicans are going all-out to defeat it.  

"It would be stunning if an ad hoc group of moderate Republicans, with some individual Democrats, defeated what is a very formidable, strong and committed Republican party organization. ... Political parties have the infrastructure, the financial resources, the hundreds of committed volunteers, the communication channels, the increasingly sophisticated data and the experience and know-how to turn out the vote. Ad hoc groups don't."

Madonna, the F&M analyst, said his gut instinct is that the charter doesn't have much chance.

But there is an "X" factor, and that's the high turnout nearly everyone is anticipating on Tuesday.

In a normal election year, dominated by regular Republican Party voters who usually follow the party's leadership in casting ballots, GOP opposition would doom the charter at the outset.

Democrats, who have a record 103,581 voters registered this year, are projecting 70 percent turnout, along with less than 60 percent of independents and GOP turnout in the low 70s.

Many of those, Madonna said, are "casual voters and first-time voters," and what they will do with the ballot question is anybody's guess.

Dumeyer, though, said big turnout could send the charter to defeat.

"People don't tend to vote for things if they don't understand them," he said.

"Its best chance is to hope for a large turnout of new and casual voters," Madonna said. "A small turnout would have been really problematic for it.

"But who knows?"