Forget the Dow Jones index.
If you want to get a sense of how the looming recession may be affecting the lives of ordinary Americans living here in Lancaster County, you may wish to consider the Buckskin Cheesecake Index.
Last year, Conestoga Valley School District's Junior Buckskin cheerleaders sold more than 900 items in their cheesecake sale.
This year, the cheerleaders sold 627 items — nearly one-third fewer items, said Tom Abram, a member of the board of the Buckskin Boosters, a consortium of Conestoga Valley's booster clubs.
"I was somewhat surprised we were down that far," said Abram, whose wife, Lisa, is the president of the cheerleading booster club.
Across the county — indeed, across the country — booster clubs and parent-teacher groups are bracing themselves for lower-than-usual fundraising yields.
In this tough economy, $8 rolls of wrapping paper and $15 cheesecakes may be luxuries some families cannot afford. And local parents, charged with raising money for everything from sports equipment to class field trips, now worry that they might need to scale back spending should their fundraising efforts fall short.
"It's a tough time," said Jan Harp Domene, PTA national president.
Parents, she said, are facing a double-whammy.
Even as their own family expenses rise, school budgets are being cut. So parents are being asked to provide their children's classrooms with supplies such as tissues and disinfecting wipes. And parent-teacher groups are being asked to subsidize big-ticket items, such as field trips, playground equipment, art programs and library resources.
Jenni Portrey and Jane Lichty are coordinating an Oct. 17 Race for Education to benefit Hans Herr Elementary School in the Lampeter-Strasburg School District. The money they raise will go toward field trips, assemblies and other special events for students.
"We're probably actually a good test case," Portrey said. "We're anxious to see the comparison between two years ago and now."
In 2006, Hans Herr's Race for Education — in which students solicit donations for their participation in a one-hour walk — netted more than $60,000. Hans Herr's student population is smaller now, because of a reconfiguration of the Lampeter-Strasburg elementary schools, and so with that and the economy in mind, this year's fundraising goal is $25,000.
People who give to the Race for Education fundraiser can give even a small amount, and the entirety of their donation goes to the PTO, Portrey and Lichty said.
"I'm really anxious to see how we do," Portrey said. "We both are."
Lampeter Elementary, in the same school district, is holding its own Race for Education in conjunction with the Hans Herr event. "Right now, we're holding our breath," said Ilse Medlock, president of the Lampeter PTO. "We're hoping we get enough to sustain us for at least a year."
The mortgage and banking crisis, rising joblessness, the high costs of gas and other family expenses, are weighing on people's minds, the Lampeter-Strasburg moms agreed.
"I think we all are, in general, wondering where this is going," Medlock said.
Portrey said that when her Bunco group met recently, a major topic of discussion was the economy.
Right now, it's expensive to buy even staples like milk and eggs at the grocery store, Lichty said.
Diane Bitts is the co-vice president and fundraising chairwoman for Hambright Elementary School's PTO in the Penn Manor School District. The Hambright PTO sold Cherrydale products — including wrapping paper, jewelry, candy and holiday items — this year, for the fourth year.
Last year, the PTO netted more than $9,800. This year, its net profit will be about $5,700, the result of "a drastic drop in sales," Bitts noted.
"I think our profits are definitely impacted from the economy," Bitts said, in an e-mail. "Families are having it tough at home and don't have the money to just spend on what they feel is trivial stuff. And I personally was hesitant to have my daughter go to friends and neighbors. I know I did not buy as much because my family income has dropped this year."
Tim Sullivan, founder and publisher of PTO Today magazine, said he is hearing from parent-teacher groups across the nation that fundraising is down this year. Sullivan said he encourages groups to resist the temptation to plan additional fundraisers, if their primary fundraisers prove disappointing.
"If parents are hurting, they're hurting," Sullivan said. "If they don't have money, my goal shouldn't be to trick them out of more of it."
Instead of setting out to "get that money by hook or by crook," a parent-teacher group should make it clear that it's on the side of parents and students, he said.
"There is this misconception that the PTO is all about fundraising," Sullivan said.
But a PTO's goal should be to make its school "great," he said, by encouraging parental involvement and by fostering a sense of community. This cause can be advanced by sponsoring an event such as a family reading night, or family game night, at little or no cost at all, he said.
This a "really good time to try to fundraise better," said Sullivan, who used to manage a fundraising company. He encourages groups to consider filling in budgetary gaps by making use of boxtop redemption programs, for instance, or fundraising programs offered by retail stores.
Americans are grappling with a "700 billion dollar question," he said, noting that, "the thing about the economy is, impressions are sometimes as powerful as reality."
While there are "definitely people who are hurting," others are "cautious because of the uncertainty," he said. In either case, the effect is the same, and parent-teacher groups are going to have to navigate through this turbulent economy.
Businesses and parents, he said, are just "being more careful with their dollars right now.
Karen Bierly, president of the Mountville Elementary PTO, in the Hempfield School District, said she is keenly aware that many parents are feeling a financial squeeze. The Mountville PTO sells coupon books, so that it can subsidize class field trips, assemblies, classroom supplies and events for families.
Several years ago, she noted, the PTO cleared $10,000. Last year, that profit decreased to about $8,000. This year, the PTO offered KidStuff coupon books, in addition to Entertainment Books, in the hope of raising about the same amount, and it appears to have met that aim, Bierly said.
Parents who, in the past, wouldn't have hesitated to buy one of those coupon books, now "are really thinking twice about it," and wondering if the coupons in the book will be enough to recoup the cost of the book. "They're just feeling the pinch," Bierly said.
In the spring, the PTO plans to hold another major fundraiser — a basket auction. Bierly said she's worried local businesses may not have the discretionary funds to donate items for the auction.
"As the PTO president, I'm concerned about the future," Bierly said. "I'm concerned about if we really have a bad year, let's say with the basket auction this year, we don't have a Plan B."
The PTO surveyed parents at the end of last school year, to "get a pulse about where parents were with all our fundraising," she said.
Nearly 180 families responded. Some expressed concern about the price, and value, of the Entertainment Books. Some said they were being asked to donate a lot, and the requests were coming not only from the school, but from church and community groups.
So, the Mountville PTO has decided that "we have to be very diligent about what we're asking parents for," Bierly said.
A plate of brownies or a large bag of chips may not seem like a lot to ask of parents, but if they are being asked by several different groups for food contributions, they may feel overwhelmed.
This particularly may be the case if, Bierly said, "in their own families, they're kind of circling the wagons," wondering whether they have the money to go holiday shopping, or to meet even basic household needs.
John Toomey, an owner of Boas Fundraising, a Lancaster company that sells sandwiches and cookie dough for fundraisers, said that his company actually has seen its business increase, as churches and groups scramble to raise money.
Churches are doing fundraisers to help people struggling to pay rent, or medical bills, or mortgage payments. Nonprofit groups are raising money for accident victims with insufficient health insurance. School clubs are raising money to buy uniforms and equipment. "Anything you can imagine, they're doing fundraisers for now," Toomey said.
Boas used to sell fundraising items such as candles, candy and teddy bears, but they were "so expensive for what you get," and Toomey thought people just didn't have the money for that kind of thing anymore. So the company did away with those products last year, he said.
Now, Boas focuses on food products — subs are by far their most popular sellers. The company's large subs wholesale for as little as $2 each, and organizations can sell them for twice that, and still offer people an easy, reasonably priced dinner.
Even in a dismal economy, people still need to eat.
Suzanne Cassidy is a staff writer for the Sunday News. Her e-mail address is scassidy@lnpnews.com.
