It's often the case that the best and brightest of Lancaster County's young people pack up and move in pursuit of dreams and opportunities far beyond anything we have to offer here.

That's as it should be. With the possible exception of our Plain-sect culture, home-school movement and puppy mills, we're not likely to be considered the center of the universe for much of anything.

Young people with creative and analytic gifts are naturally going to be drawn to big cities, research centers and enterprises in the United States and beyond, where they might fully develop their talents.

While they should, of course, have our blessing, we had better start to worry if young people in general begin thinking their future and Lancaster County are not compatible.

And should we be worrying? Judging by a few statistics highlighted by consultants preparing an economic plan for Lancaster County, maybe we should.

Subpar performance

They compiled a list of 19 metropolitan statistical areas that are similar to Lancaster County in size, income groupings, job diversity and racial mix. The list includes Appleton, Wis.; Flint, Mich.; and York County, Pa.

In comparing the areas' economic growth between 2001 and 2005, they found Lancaster County's performance was decidedly mediocre in two regards.

During that four-year span, Lancaster County's gross domestic product (the value of all goods and services produced) grew by 8.6 percent, placing it eighth among the 19 peers. Des Moines, Iowa, by comparison, grew by 21 percent, York County by 18.2 percent, Berks County by 10.5 percent.

Lancaster County fared even worse in a comparison of GDP per worker in 2005. The county ranked 14th in GDP per worker, at $51,871, compared to $72,055 for Des Moines, $56,160 for Harrisburg-Carlisle and $55,114 for York County.

Lancaster County, with its agricultural prowess, low unemployment rate and venerable tourism industry, likes to think of itself as a perpetual economic miracle, but that perception is being tested.

If we're being beaten by such lackluster places as Des Moines and Reading, how do we compare with places such as Austin, Atlanta and Seattle, vibrant cities young people might find more appealing than Lancaster County?

The answer is not too well, according to The Milken Institute's 2008 ranking of Best Performing Cities, which cited Provo, Utah; Raleigh, N.C.; and Salt Lake City as the three best metropolitan statistical areas for creating and sustaining economic growth.

And what about Lancaster? Ranked 161st in 2007, Lancaster has fallen to 175th this year, right behind — are you ready for this? — Gary, Ind.

Public buy-in

The only good news is leaders in business, government and education seem to understand the urgency of the process the county planning commission has initiated to tackle impediments to economic success.

In coming months, consultants will be seeking answers to such questions as how much of the county's success is tied to the wider region, which export industry shows the most promise and how well positioned is the county to attract well-educated "creative class" workers.

Once the research is complete, the planners will engage community leaders in writing policies aimed at keeping the county from becoming an economic backwater.

But policies are meaningless if people don't buy into them. If, for example, county investment in both postsecondary education and workforce housing are seen as tools to a sustainable economy, will the public go along? Or will we choose to fall further behind Gary, Ind.?

Plenty is at stake, including whether our young people will seek a future here or vote with their feet.

E-mail: jhawkes@lnpnews.com