Kicker and defense are not necessarily the two least important positions in fantasy football; they are merely the two most unpredictable. That is the reason that draft picks related to these positions should occur close to the end of a fantasy draft.
Some fantasy owners will elect to select two kickers and/or two defenses on draft day. Hopefully the reason for this strategy is to make sure that there is sufficient coverage at every position during a bye week. Unfortunately, the downside to this tactic is that owners will constantly need to choose which defense or kicker matches up better during a given week. This task is nearly impossible and consistently frustrating.
Often a fantasy owner will elect to start a kicker that is going against a poor defense. Theoretically, the starting kicker will get more attempts to score than a kicker going against a superior defense. The unpredictability of kickers causes the problem, though.
A kicker going against a great defense may play for a team that loses 21-9, with three field goals comprising the nine points. A kicker going against a modest defense might only score five points in a 35-10 victory, converting five PATs. Because of the week-to-week fickleness of a kicker's performance, fantasy owners need to start their most accurate kickers, regardless of opponent.
The number of chances a kicker gets is subject to too many variables; his conversion rate is less so. Owners flocked to Rob Bironas last year after he made eight field goals in a game against the Texans. Bironas was an accurate kicker last season, but owners expecting a repeat performance of his 26-point effort against Houston were not thinking clearly.
Over the entire season, Bironas did lead the league in field-goal attempts with 39, helped in large part by his 8-for-8 in Week 7. However, in only three other games all year did Bironas get even three field-goal attempts.
Owners choosing to draft Bironas this season ought to justify the selection with his 90 percent success rate on field goals last year, not upon a game where he made eight field goals, five of which were under 30 yards.
Another example of kickers' volatility can be seen over the past few years. Neil Rackers was awesome in 2005, converting 40 of his 42 field-goal attempts. Since then, he is 49 of 67, a 73 percent success rate. In 2006, Robbie Gould scored 143 points because of the Bears' excellent offense. He converted 86 percent of his field goals in 2007, yet six kickers score more points than him. Owners drafting Gould last year predicting a duplication of 2006 were slightly disappointed.
Six kickers have converted over 85 percent of their kicks over the last three years: Shayne Graham, Nate Kaeding, Matt Stover, Joe Nedney, Rian Lindell and current free agent Jay Feely.
Four others have converted more than 20 kicks longer than 40 yards since 2006: Robbie Gould, Jason Hanson, Kris Brown and Josh Brown. Mason Crosby and Nick Folk converted 12 and nine such field goals, respectively, in 2007, their rookie year.
Defenses are just as unpredictable as kickers. It is best to stick with one defense at a time; once a defense proves to be ineffective, drop that unit and pick up another one. The perfect example of trying to determine when to start a defense is when the Chargers hosted the Colts last year.
San Diego's defense had proven its mettle all year, but some owners shied away from playing them against an explosive Indianapolis offense. The Chargers intercepted Peyton Manning six times, caused two sacks and returned two kicks for touchdowns. The fact that San Diego did all this in one game is not all that surprisingly; that it was against the Colts is.
Fantasy owners should chose their defense based on sacks and special teams. The frequency that a defense causes turnovers is rather difficult to predict and is not a suitable basis for selecting a defense.
Four defenses sacked the quarterback 45 or more times in 2007. The Giants, Patriots, Cowboys and Seahawks topped the league in sacks. The Giants, of course, have lost both Michael Strahan (retirement) and Osi Umenyiora (injury) in the last few months. The Vikings have added Jared Allen, the league leader with 15.5 sacks in 2007, so look for them to improve upon their 38 sacks from last season.
Many fantasy leagues also give points for special teams touchdowns, which makes teams with good return games worth starting in the defense spot on a fantasy team. Darren Sproles of the Chargers, Devin Hester of the Bears and Adam Jones of the Cowboys are all explosive return men who will bolster their team's fantasy defenses.
Dan Massey's Fantasy Sports appears each Sunday. E-mail him at dmassey@lnpnews.com.
