Rendell, a Democrat, would trounce Lynn Swann, his Republican challenger, by 14 points if the election were held now, the Franklin & Marshall College Keystone Poll found.
Santorum, an embattled Republican whose polls have consistently shown him down by double-digits, has closed to within 6 points of Bob Casey, the Democratic Party’s likely nominee.
The statewide survey released this morning illustrates the power of TV in political campaigns, said Keystone Poll director G. Terry Madonna.
“You have $1 million in laudatory, positive commercials by Rendell — which have been unanswered by Swann,” said Madonna. “You have a pretty harsh series of attacks waged against Casey, whether he’s shown up for his job.
“In this environment, a campaign has a lot of difficulty when it lets the opponent spend that kind of money; in Casey’s case and in Swann’s case, they’re not answering,” said Madonna, the director of F&M’s Center for Politics and Public Affairs.
As a result, the governor is ahead of Swann 49 percent to 35 percent; three months ago the race was a dead-heat, with Rendell leading by only 3 points in the Keystone Poll.
And Casey now leads Santorum only 47 percent to 41 percent; three months ago Casey led by 11 points, 50 percent to 39 percent.
The survey of 578 registered voters was conducted between April 27 and Monday by F&M’s Center for Opinion Research. The margin of error is 4.1 percent.
In the race for governor, both Rendell and Swann are unopposed in the May 16 primary election. They will face each other, and independent candidate Russ Diamond, in the Nov. 7 general election.
Diamond, who founded the anti-incumbent group PACleanSweep after the infamous and now-repealed July pay raise, is now getting only 3 percent of the vote, according to the Keystone Poll. He draws his support from Democrats and Republicans alike.
Rendell appears to have regained the momentum he had before February, when Swann captured the state GOP endorsement and his former football team, the Pittsburgh Steelers, won the Super Bowl.
“Rendell has been, in the last two or three months, more energetic around the state, talking about what he’s done in his first four years, personally using his ability as a campaigner,” Madonna said. “And you may disagree with his policies, but no one can argue that he’s not a great campaigner.”
At the same time, Swann has remained relatively low-key, avoiding local and statewide reporters in favor of those with national publications such as The Washington Post.
“To put it bluntly, there’s a lack of momentum for Swann at the moment,” Madonna said. “This race is more about Rendell at the moment. It’s Rendell who’s dominating the nature of the debate right now.”
In the race for U.S. Senate, only Santorum has a clear path the fall election. Casey must survive a primary challenge from two Democrats, attorney Alan Sandals and history professor Chuck Pennacchio.
The Keystone Poll shows that Casey is far ahead of both, however; in a survey of 246 registered Democrats, the current state treasurer got 63 percent of the vote to Sandals’ 4 percent and Pennacchio’s 3 percent. Thirty percent are undecided.
The margin of error in that question is 6.2 percent.
While Casey is clearly ahead of both his fellow Democrats, the attacks he has sustained from each appear to have taken a toll on his performance against Santorum.
“While the Democrats aren’t doing so well against him in the polls, they may be costing him some support among Democrats on the liberal side, on the issue of abortion,” Madonna said. Casey is anti-abortion, while both Sandals and Pennacchio are pro-choice.
While Casey’s “favorable” ratings have slid, Santorum’s have remained unchanged, essentially closing what had been a significant gap between the two. The greatest shift in Casey’s support comes in Southeastern Pennsylvania, where more people say they are undecided.
In a separate finding, the Keystone Poll found the approval rating of the Legislature at a historic low level. Only 20 percent say state lawmakers are doing a good job, and 73 percent say they’re performing fairly or poorly.
Only half want to see their own representatives re-elected, while 30 percent are ready to kick them out of office.
“This shows there’s really disenchantment with the Legislature as a result of the pay hike,” Madonna said. Ongoing news reports of the perks of being in office have fueled that anger, he said.
The Keystone Poll is commissioned by the Philadelphia Daily News; The Patriot-News in Harrisburg; the Pittsburgh Tribune Review; WGAL-TV in Lancaster; CN8, The Comcast Network; and WTAE-TV in Pittsburgh.
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