Another nickel here, another dime there: The price of a gallon of gas is all over the place these days. It's as high as $3.16 in Lancaster, a spike of more than 15 cents in the last week.

If that bugs you, perhaps you should stop reading here, because filling your car's gas tank is only going to get more expensive as summer nears, analysts say.

"There's a very good chance that in the next two to three months, we will see a new national record," says Stephen Schork, who publishes The Schork Report, which tracks the energy and shipping markets.

That record, by the way, is $3.45 — factoring in inflation — and it's two-and-a-half decades old.

"There's a very good chance we're going to take that average down," said Schork.

So what does that mean for drivers here in Lancaster County?

Best-case scenario: $3.35 or $3.40 for a gallon of regular unleaded sometime between the end of this month and Memorial Day.

Worst-case scenario: $3.70 to $3.80 a gallon — and maybe $4 in some parts of the country.

AAA's Fuel Gauge Report says the average price of a gallon of regular unleaded in Lancaster County is at $3.07, a cent-and-a-half cheaper than it was a month ago but two-and-a-half cents more expensive than it was just a day ago.

A week ago, a gallon cost less than $3 in most places here and across the state, according to the Web site PennsylvaniaGasPrices.com.

Oil prices closed above $100 a barrel for the first time Tuesday, partly because investors seized on a refinery explosion and the possibility that OPEC may cut its output.

Refineries, meantime, are preparing to shut down temporarily to retool for making the summer grades of gas, drawing down the supply, Schork said.

"And we have yet to see a commensurate rise in gas prices to reflect $90-plus crude oil," he added.

Many recent forecasts have said demand for oil this year will be less than initially expected — yet prices continue to rise.

That suggests oil may continue its climb as the weakening dollar attracts new investors to the futures market.

Concerns about a falling dollar, the threat of new violence in Nigeria and continuing tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela were "adding to the bullish mix," said Vienna's JBC Energy in its daily market report.

In a daily research note, David Moore, a commodity strategist at Commonwealth Bank, noted "the oil price continues to be supported by concerns over oil supply.

"There is speculation," he added, "that OPEC will either leave oil production levels unchanged, or, possibly, even reduce production following the 5 March OPEC meeting."

Still, prices remain within the range of inflation-adjusted highs set in early 1980.

Depending on how the adjustment is calculated, $38 a barrel then would be worth $96 to $103 or more today.

Lancaster gas price map

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