With the Super Bowl behind us, the baseball season is but a few weeks away as pitchers and catchers report to spring training later this week. The onset of spring training also indicates the need to prepare for fantasy baseball drafts, which occur throughout March.
In order to analyze as many players as possible before draft dates, this week begins a position-by-position examination of the 2008 fantasy baseball landscape, starting at shortstop.
Hanley Ramirez has become the game's most complete shortstop, despite toiling in relative obscurity in the Major League purgatory that currently is the state of Florida.
In only his second season in the majors last year, Ramirez hit .332 with 29 home runs, 81 runs batted in and 51 stolen bases. He also crossed the plate 125 times. Ramirez was the only player to be in the top five in his league in batting, stolen bases, runs and hits in 2007.
Some will make the argument, especially in this geographical area, that Jimmy Rollins is just as good as Ramirez. In 2007, they were very close. The difference is that last season was Rollins' career year; he had career-highs in nearly every offensive category.
Ramirez also improved in 2007 over 2006, his only other full year in the majors, but at age 24, he is still on the upward ascent to greatness, whereas Jimmy Rollins is on the plateau.
Last season, Rollins scored a league-leading 139 runs and stole 41 bases. His 30 homers were a career-best, yet those drafting Rollins would be wise not to expect the same power surge from him this year. Likewise, Rollins will probably not hit .300 or have a .350 on-base percentage.
Jose Reyes is the sparkplug of the New York Mets. When Reyes stopped producing last year, the Mets stopped winning. His .205 average and four measly stolen bases in September led to New York having the greatest late-season collapse in history.
Expect Reyes to steal at least 60 bases, score 120 runs and hit around .300. Even in the best of seasons, though, Reyes is not a threat to hit more than 20 round trippers. For that reason, he falls slightly below Ramirez and Rollins.
Many Yankee detractors that feel that Derek Jeter is given too much credit. All he does is get hits and score runs every single year. Of the 11 seasons in which he has played at least 140 games, he has gotten 190 or more hits in nine of them. He has six 200-hit seasons, including each of the last three.
Jeter is consistent, and fantasy baseball is all about consistency. He will hit .315, get 200 hits, steal 15 to 20 bases, hit a similar number of home runs, and score around 110 runs.
Two players that fantasy owners should draft with caution are Miguel Tejada and Troy Tulowitzki. Tejada, fresh off an appearance on the Mitchell Report, is looking to start fresh in the bandbox in which the Houston Astros play.
Tejada's power numbers have steadily decreased over the last four years, albeit injuries in 2007 constituted toward a portion of that decline. He can still hit for a decent average, but he rarely draws 50 walks or scores 100 runs in a season.
Tulowitzki, the runner-up in the 2007 NL Rookie of the Year voting, hit 24 home runs and drove in 99 runs last year. His .291 average is notable, although much of his success is due to his home ballpark. He hit .326 in Coor's Field in 2007 and .256 on the road. Such is the case with many Rockie players. Avoid the temptation to project too much sophomore success for the 23-year-old.
J.J. Hardy of the Milwaukee Brewers had a great start to last season, hitting 18 of his 26 home runs by the All-Star Break. As the Brewers limped down the home stretch of the season, so did Hardy, driving in only 26 runs after the Midsummer Classic.
Hardy is a good player, but to expect him to put up the power numbers he did last year is a foolhardy move by any fantasy owner. Draft Hardy as a second-string shortstop.
Julio Lugo could be a great mid-round steal. Coming off a season in which he hit .237, Lugo's stock is rather low this off-season. However, he hit .280 in the second half of last season. Lugo managed to steal 33 bases and drive in 73 runs for Boston, both impressive totals. Look for a full season of productivity from him in 2008.
Here are my shortstop rankings:
1. Hanley Ramirez, Marlins; 2. Jimmy Rollins, Phillies; 3. Jose Reyes, Mets; 4. Derek Jeter, Yankees; 5. Carlos Guillen, Tigers; 6. Michael Young, Rangers; 7. Edgar Renteria, Tigers; 8. Miguel Tejada, Astros; 9. Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies; 10. Orlando Cabrera, White Sox
11. Julio Lugo, Red Sox; 12. Khalil Greene, Padres; 13. Stephen Drew, Diamondbacks; 14. Rafael Furcal, Dodgers; 15. Yunel Escober, Braves; 16. J.J. Hardy, Brewers; 17. Felipe Lopez, Nationals; 18. Yuniesky Betancourt, Mariners; 19. Jhonny Peralta, Indians; 20. Bobby Crosby, Athletics.
Dan Massey's Fantasy Sports appears each Sunday. E-mail him at dmassey@lnpnews.com.
