To hear tell, it’s all wrapped up. “Crash,” sneaking in from behind, wins best picture, Reese Witherspoon takes best actress, Philip Seymour Hoffman wins best actor, George Clooney picks up best supporting actor and Rachel Weisz wins best supporting actress.

And to sate “Brokeback Mountain” fans and because he should have an Oscar on his shelf, Ang Lee wins best director.

Unless, of course, they don’t.

I love writing my annual Oscar prediction column even though it usually proves to be worthless.

I guess I still think the people who should win will win. Silly me.

Anyway, here are my predictions. If you’re in a betting pool, totally ignore them.

Best Picture: For a while it seemed like “Brokeback Mountain” had it locked up, but there has been a lot of buzz about “Crash,” a sprawling and complex look at race relations in Los Angeles that came out during the summer.

Both movies are the kind Hollywood loves to honor. “Brokeback Mountain” compassionately explores the relationship between two men who can’t come to grips with being gay. “Crash” skillfully interweaves a dozen stories to explore the many shades of racism and comes up with no easy answers.

I think “Brokeback Mountain” will squeeze out a victory.

Best Actress: Until I saw Felicity Huffman’s amazing performance in “Transamerica,” I figured Reese Witherspoon was a shoe-in for her joyful and sexy portrayal of June Carter in “Walk the Line.”

But Huffman’s performance is so amazing, I just don’t know how it can be denied. She plays Bree, who, one week before she’s scheduled to have final gender reassignment surgery, discovers she fathered a son who is now an angry and confused teenager.

It’s a real acting challenge, being a woman playing a man who is becoming a woman, and Huffman triumphs.

So I think in a surprise, Huffman wins. (And won’t the Desperate Housewives be jealous!)

Best Actor: This one seems to be preordained. Philip Seymour Hoffman has won all the awards out there for his uncanny portrayal of writer Truman Capote.

It is an extraordinary performance, but I see it as an imitation of someone. On the other hand, Heath Ledger totally creates Ennis, the ranch hand who falls in love with another man but is emotionally unequipped to deal with it. Ledger’s performance is internal, quiet and unassuming. Hollywood never appreciates those kinds of roles. Hoffman wins.

Best Supporting Actress: Rachel Weisz has been winning all the pre-Oscar supporting actress awards (even though she’s really the lead) for her role in “The Constant Gardener.” She is quite good as an activist in Africa who discovers bad things about an international drug company.

But Amy Adams made “Junebug” shine brightly and Michelle Williams is absolutely heartbreaking in “Brokeback Mountain.”

I think they’ll give it to Adams because the Academy always likes to be surprising in this category and her performance is a true delight.

Best Supporting Actor: Another strong category, I think it’s down to Matt Dillon, from “Crash,” and George Clooney for “Syriana.”

I think they’ll give it to George Clooney for gaining weight for the role of a burned-out CIA agent, getting hurt while filming the movie, his work on “Good Night, and Good Luck,” and oh yea, it was a pretty terrific performance too.

Best Director: You figure the guy who directs the best picture should win the award for best director. It only makes sense. But sometimes it doesn’t happen. I suspect, if “Crash” wins, director Paul Haggis (who also co-wrote the script) will not be walking up there to get his own award. Ang Lee wins this one, even if “Brokeback Mountain” doesn’t go home with the Oscar.

So there you go. Here’s hoping Jon Stewart hosts a memorable show.

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Jane Holahan is a New Era staff writer. Her column appears every other Wednesday.

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