No GOP presidential candidate has carried Pennsylvania since 1988, when the first George Bush beat Democrat Michael Dukakis.

And if a new Franklin & Marshall College statewide poll is any indication, the prospects for Republicans in 2008 are pretty dismal as well.

Both Democratic U.S. Sens. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are beating all of the Republican front-runners in hypothetical, head-to-head matchups in the Keystone Poll.

"We find both Obama and Clinton in reasonably good positions in the state," said G. Terry Madonna, the poll director and head of F&M's Center for Politics and Public Affairs.

"They lead against all of the candidates, but given the margin of error and some of the matchups, the election could be very close," he added. "The state certainly leans Democratic."

Clinton, who holds a commanding lead over the rest of the Democratic field in Pennsylvania, would beat Republican front-runner Rudy Giuliani by 9 points, 51 percent to 42 percent, with 7 percent undecided.

The presidential survey of 479  registered voters has a margin of error of 4.5 percentage points. It was conducted between Aug. 24 and Sunday by F&M's Center for Opinion Research.

The results of the new poll, released this morning, are markedly different from a similar Keystone survey two months ago. In the previous poll, Giuliani was beating Clinton handily, 53 percent to 37 percent.

"I think that shows Clinton is making strides," said Madonna. "Hillary has improved. She's doing better with her range of voters, who are more comfortable with her, who find her position on the Iraq war more to their liking. She also has done very well in the Democratic debates since June."

Clinton's campaign is also bolstered by President Bush's low approval rating in Pennsylvania — only 23 percent like the way he's handling his job, the lowest in more than four years of Keystone Polls — and the unpopularity of the war, said Madonna.

Pennsylvania voters also were favorable to Sen. Clinton's husband,  former President Bill Clinton, siding with him in the elections of 1992 and 1996.

"The Clintons have strong organizations and support in the state," Madonna said.

In hypothetical matchups, Sen. Clinton would also beat U.S. Sen. John McCain, 50-42; former U.S. Sen. Fred Thompson, 47-42 percent; and former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney 44-43 percent.

Obama would also beat each of the Republican candidates, the poll found. He would defeat McCain, 47-42; Giuliani, 49-42; Romney, 49-34; and Thompson, 50-30.

That Pennsylvania leans Democratic is no surprise. In the last two presidential elections, Democratic candidates carried the state — Al Gore by 3 points in 2000 and John Kerry by 2.5 points in 2004.

In the race for the GOP nomination, Giuliani leads McCain, 32 percent to 19 percent, among registered Republicans, the Keystone Poll found. Romney is a distant third at 12 percent and former U.S. Sen. Fred Thompson is fourth at 11 percent. All other Republicans get 3 percent, while 23 percent of GOP voters are undecided.

Among the Democratic field, Clinton leads her closest rival, Obama, by 17 points, 38-21, among registered Democrats. Former U.S. Sen. John Edwards comes in third with only 17 percent of the vote. Other candidates get 6 percent, and 18 percent don't know.

The poll was commissioned by the Philadelphia Daily News, The Patriot-News of Harrisburg, WGAL, Pittsburgh Tribune-Review and WTAE, also in Pittsburgh.

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