Lay in one gallon of gas and one gallon of heating oil in Lancaster County these days and you shell out a total of about 50 cents more than you would have last year this time.

It may get worse.

But will the added burden force people to stay home and ./i./i. not shop?

In an already limping economy with an eight-year-high jobless rate of 6 percent, should retailers brace for even more belt tightening?

Unless energy prices zoom much higher, market watchers and local retailers say, the answer to both questions is a qualified no.

"Anything that takes disposable income out of consumers' pockets has an impact on retail,'' said Scott Krugman, a spokesman for the National Retail Federation in Washington, D.C. "That's the way it's always been and that's the way it will always be.''

But many factors influence consumer spending. For example, Krugman said, a wave of home refinancing spurred by low interest rates is padding the same pocketbooks that higher energy costs are draining.

President Bush's proposed tax credit promises to do more of the same.

And on Friday, the Dow Jones industrial average and the Nasdaq showed signs of clawing out of their bear caves by each posting 9-point gains.

"The economy is recovering,'' Krugman said. "It's not all as dark and gloomy as it may sound.'

Merchants expect customers to keep on filling stores here. The county's big selling points, they say, are matchless retail diversity and close-to-home tourist attractions, which draw shoppers from near and far.

"There's many reasons to come here'' besides buying a new dress, said Ellen Mowrer, the executive director of corporate development for Doneckers Inc. in Ephrata.

"We're pretty confident that the special nature of what we offer is enough to convince people to make the trip.''

That journey has become a little more expensive of late.

Increasing demand, coupled with a strike in the oil fields of Venezuela and uncertainty over possible conflicts with Iraq and North Korea, have driven up wholesale oil prices more than 23 cents a gallon since July.

Meanwhile, frigid weather has boosted consumption of heating oil, propane and natural gas. On Thursday, the U.S. Department of Energy announced that heating costs throughout the nation this winter may rocket by as much as 43 percent.

Such reports are undeniably unsettling. But merchants and others are putting the bad news into perspective.

Banking consultant Tim McDonald predicted a "miniscule'' effect on the economy even should gas prices jump to $2 a gallon.

"I swear people spend more money in the convenience store than they do at the pump,'' said McDonald, who frequently drives throughout southeastern Pennsylvania for his job as president of Danielson Associates.

Rising energy costs may impact retail he added, but not by much. "Maybe it's one less (hamburger) per month ... We're a resilient society.''

Some consumers have weathered bad times before.

At Doneckers, Mowrer said, the average shopper is 30 years old or better.

"In many cases, these customers have already been through depressions, recessions, wars. They've seen trouble'' and realize it's not the end of the world.

Since the terrorist attacks convinced many people to stay closer to home two years ago, she said, "We've actually seen our middle-Atlantic destination business pick up.

"We certainly don't intend to decrease our advertising. We have found we've gotten a great deal of response to our advertisements in national magazines, such as Architectural Digest, and regional magazines, such as Philadelphia Magazine.''

Park City management officials could not be reached for comment Friday.

Rockvale Square owner Herb Fisher Jr. also saw silver linings in the wintry economic cloud.

"About 70 percent of our shopping is tourism,'' he said, and 75 percent of the buying is done by women. When people drive into the area now, they may be consolidating trips and entering more stores per visit.

"I think the shoppers have become more selective in their spending,'' Fisher said, "but on the other hand, if the value's there, they've got the money to buy.'

Retailers say their strategy in lean times is to continue to provide value, trim costs and market themselves as a diverse shopping mecca.

On the Route 30 strip, pointed out Bruce Fry, the regional manager of Tanger Outlet Centers, "You can shop 200 stores within a mile.'

Many of those outlets "have become really aggressive in their pricing strategies,'' and have relied more than ever on in-store advertising and word-of-mouth.

They've also tightened their operations.

"Over the past two years, we've seen stockrooms get smaller and smaller' as stores have cut their inventories and increased short-term deliveries, Fry said. "It gets off the truck and goes right out on the sales floor.''

Wal-Mart spokesman Tom Williams said the giant Arkansas-based retailer will continue to pursue 2003-04 expansion plans to add 15 to 20 Neighborhood Markets, 210 Supercenters and 45 to 55 new discount stores nationwide.

At the same time, he said, "We just fight very hard to continue to take costs out of the business.''

The Bon-Ton Stores Inc. is also putting top priority on efficient operations, said spokeswoman Mary Kerr.

"This started a year ago when we saw the economy was not in a recovery mode. We will continue to do that and be well positioned if the economy improves.''

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